Israel Update for May 2007

Given the damning conclusions of the interim report-which did not even cover the Premier's widely condemned decision to let Syria off the hook for its proxy force's sustained attacks on Israeli civilians centers, nor the final ground push in the last weekend of the war which produced over one-fourth of the IDF's 117 casualties in just 30 hours-it was no surprise that many of Olmert's closest friends and political advisors joined his opponents in concluding that he had to quickly leave office. This was made clear when his senior Kadima colleague, Foreign Minister Livni, demanded his resignation. Apparently responding to overnight opinion surveys that showed nearly 70% of the public wanted Olmert to call it quits, the popular minister said she had made her position "clear that he should step down" in a face to face meeting with the Premier only one day after the Winograd report was issued. However Livni denied widespread media reports that she had "given the Prime Minister an ultimatum" about the matter.

Livni acknowledged that she might have an ulterior motive in demanding Olmert's resignation, confirming plans to become a candidate to replace him as Kadima party leader. This came despite press reports that she herself would be rebuked in the final Winograd report for having failed to point out to her cabinet colleagues that the Premier's declared diplomatic war goals were probably unattainable.

Meanwhile earlier opinion polls that had predicted Livni might beat Likud leader Netanyahu if fresh elections are held in the coming months were reversed in the wake of the interim report's release. Most surveys now show only around 10% of the general public would choose her for the top government post, compared to over 25% who support the former Likud prime minister. However, any new contest would definitely be a three way race, with polls predicting that either Ehud Barak or Ami Ayalon would give Netanyahu a good run for his money.

Kadima's Demise

Many Israeli political analysts said the preliminary Winograd report signals the pending collapse of the Kadima party, created by Ariel Sharon in November 2005 soon after he completed his controversial Israeli evacuation from the Gaza Strip and parts of northern Samaria. If so, Kadima will join several other "third way" middle of the road parties that have roared onto Israel's crowded political stage like a lion, and then quickly faded into obscurity. Meanwhile Kadima's veteran founder continues to lie in a deep coma in a Tel Aviv medical facility, while the man he adopted as his political successor-mainly because he was about the only Likud official at the time that fully backed Sharon's unilateral withdrawal plan-is apparently soon heading out the door after an extremely short reign on the throne.

Several right-wing and religious Knesset members who strongly opposed Sharon's Gaza-Samaria civilian evacuations noted that if Olmert is indeed prematurely forced out of office, he will join a whole series of prime ministers whose rule was cut short after they either implemented land withdrawals from portions of Israel's ancient biblical homeland or agreed to negotiate the same.

The first leader to exit the stage prematurely was Menachem Begin, who agreed to negotiate the future of Judea and Samaria as part of the Camp David peace accords with Egypt. He subsequently abruptly resigned his high position in 1983 soon after the sudden death of his beloved wife. Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated months after negotiating the second Oslo peace accord, while his successor, Shimon Peres, lasted only a few months in power after agreeing to carry out the accord's agreed upon withdrawals from several Palestinian towns.

Several nationalist politicians noted that the two current leading contenders to replace Ehud Olmert should he be forced to step down-Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak-were among former Israeli leaders who likewise ended up in early retirement soon after agreeing to hand over strategic territory to the PLO. However only one of them, the current Likud party and Knesset opposition leader, has stated that his agreement to bow to strong international demands for such land handovers (in his case from part of the biblical town of Hebron) was mistaken, and would not be repeated if he sits once again in the premier's lofty chair.

Hamas On The Warpath

The apparent need for strong Israeli political leadership at this critical juncture of history was amply illustrated when armed conflict resumed with the Palestinian Hamas movement after a nearly six month lull. Hamas members fired over 250 rockets into Israeli territory in just 12 days, beginning on May 16, prompting the resumption of Israeli "targeted killings" of rocket shooters and other Palestinian militants, helicopter attacks on rocket storage facilities, and other military activity, along with wide scale arrests of leading Hamas officials, including two Palestinian Authority cabinet ministers. The radical Muslim group responded by vowing to resume suicide terror attacks inside Israeli cities and launching other hostile actions.

The violence began when Palestinian Hamas fighters attacked gunmen from the rival Fatah movement in early May, setting off a fierce round of armed clashes that bordered on full civil war. Press reports said the violence was sparked when Fatah leaders uncovered a Hamas plot to assassinate overall PA leader Mahmoud Abbas during a scheduled visit to meet with Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip. PA security forces under Abbas' control then launched raids on Hamas positions throughout the tense Gaza Strip, prompting the Islamic group to respond with an all out offensive against PLO Fatah forces. The escalating violence closed most shops, schools and businesses as intense street battles erupted everywhere.

After scores of fighters and innocent bystanders were killed on both sides of the Palestinian political divide, Hamas officials came under increasing scorn in the local Arab media for threatening the existence of the new "unity government," formed as a direct result of Saudi Arabia and Egyptian intervention to heal the deep internal Palestinian rift. This apparently led Hamas leaders to adopt a new strategy to further weaken Abbas and his Fatah movement-attack Israel, and thereby reinforce their support from the Palestinian people.

Suffering Sderot

The result was the heaviest barrage of rockets upon the town of Sderot, located just seven miles northeast of Gaza City, since Israeli military forces and over 8,000 civilians were pulled out of the entire Gaza Strip in late August 2005. Over 4,250 Palestinian Kassam rockets had already landed in and around the town of 23,000 residents since the Al Aksa attrition war began in late 2000. However the assaults mostly came in small spurts and then paused for days or even weeks, allowing for a return to some form of normalcy in between, even if Sderot residents all realized that another attack would come sooner or later. But the latest barrage has been unlike anything the town has ever experienced, with non-stop daily assaults that dumped an average of 12 rockets a day upon the town's frightened residents.