Israel Update for August 2007

Olmert's office denied a report in the Haaretz newspaper that the Premier had authorized a clandestine backchannel approach to senior Palestinian officials involving dovish new President Shimon Peres. The paper said the elder statesman was authorized to offer the full Israeli withdrawal demanded by the Saudi plan, including from Jerusalem's historic Old City with its sacred Temple Mount. However speculation that backchannel talks were indeed taking place surfaced again later in the month when Peres announced he would soon meet with Abbas after holding talks with new PA Prime Minister Salaam Fayad, which the Israeli President claimed centered only on economic issues. The speculation further mushroomed when Peres confirmed that final status framework talks are indeed taking place between Abbas and Olmert.

Just how difficult it would be to uproot hundreds of thousands of Jews from their contested communities was illustrated in early August when the government ordered the immediate evacuation of just two Jewish families living without army permission in empty buildings in an evacuated former market area of Hebron. Pointing out that the buildings had been owned and occupied by Jews until the Arab pogrom of 1929 that decimated the Jewish community in the holy town; the families had resisted Defense Ministry orders to leave. Hundreds of soldiers and border policemen were deployed to remove the families and scores of Orthodox Jews who had come to support them. Twelve observant soldiers who refused to join in the tempestuous evacuation were later jailed for their action. However several subsequent opinion surveys showed just how deep the divisions are over such uprootings in Israeli society, with around 30% of the public saying they supported the soldier's defiance.

Hamas On A Roll

Olmert and Abbas confirmed that the overall security situation in the area was discussed during their early August meeting. Some reports said those talks focused on recent Israeli and PA intelligence reports that Hamas has succeeded beyond anyone's expectations in successfully taking over the Gaza Strip. The Iranian and Syrian-backed group has reportedly established a significantly more effective and publicly popular government in the congested coastal zone in just two months time than the ousted Fatah PA administration did in well over one decade of rule.

Despite the intelligence reports, a late August opinion poll showed a popular swing back toward the ousted PLO Fatah movement. However analysts noted that the survey was taken in the sweltering Gaza Strip following several days without electricity supplies exacerbated by a European Union decision to temporarily halt fuel payments amid reports that the funds were going directly into Hamas pockets. And a significant plurality said their personal safety had increased under Hamas rule.

The survey revealed that 47% of Gaza's residents favor the new government of moderate PM Fayad, which is currently only ruling over portions of Judea and Samaria, while only 31% want to see former Hamas PM Ismail Haniyeh restored to the PA premier's chair. Analysts said some of Fayad's popularity may have been due to his apparent decision in early August to fund thousands of former PA officials in Gaza with links to Hamas. The move angered both Israeli and American officials

Given that elected Hamas officials still control most of the largest municipalities in PA ruled portions of Judea and Samaria, along with many smaller towns and villages there, the assessment of relative Hamas success in setting up a government in the Gaza Strip was unsettling to US and Israeli leaders. It brought further concern that PA security forces commanded by Abbas may not be able to hold there own if a Hamas armed showdown is launched in the area, as occurred in Gaza. Evidence that Hamas is considering stage two of its June offensive came in early August when a powerful Hamas bomb was detonated in a PA jail in the largest Palestinian city, Nablus. The attack was seen as a stark warning by the radical group that it will not sit still if a PA crackdown on Hamas armed cells continues in Judea and Samaria.

Palestinian Kassam rocket attacks upon Jewish communities were stepped up around the Gaza Strip in August, including a direct hit on a private home and-a thankfully empty-kindergarten in the besieged town of Sderot. In response, IDF action was launched against various Gaza targets during the month amid increasing calls for a major new army operation. Reports said nearly 20 Palestinian fighters were killed, several while trying to attack Israeli ground forces stationed along the border fence. A cross border terror attack was thwarted on August 25 when alert IDF soldiers spotted several infiltrators, wearing stolen IDF uniforms, on their way to attack a Jewish community in the area. In Nablus, an Islamic Jihad terrorist leader was killed in an undercover army operation.

Meanwhile Hamas officials confirmed reports they are drafting thousands of men into a new armed "police force" in the Gaza Strip to replace the overrun PA security force. The new Muslim force will supposedly only act in a policing capacity, and be kept separate from the virtual army that Hamas is also building, with heavy weaponry and Iranian assistance, in the conquered coastal zone.

Northern Explosion?

Reports of a possible major war this year between Syria and Israel, with the probable involvement of radical Hamas and Hizbullah forces as well, and maybe also Iran, continued to boil during the unusually hot month of August. The government-run Syrian newspaper Tishrin claimed on August 19 that "extensive Israeli military maneuvers" signaled an "imminent attack" being planned upon the Arab nation. The report also said that a new large American military aid package for Israel-worth 30 billion dollars over the next decade, with 75% to be spent in the United States, therefore shoring up American defense industries-is designed to provoke war between the two Middle East enemies. The US aid package announcement came amid a reported sharp drop in UK weapons sales to Israel, down a massive 75% since 2005.

The Syrian newspaper did not mention the fact that the White House also announced a $20 billion military aid package over the next decade for Saudi Arabia and four other Gulf Arab countries, apparently to help counter the growing Iranian threat. An additional support grant was also unveiled for Egypt. Israeli officials expressed concern over one aspect of the Saudi deal, which would allow that country to transform regular bombs into laser guided "smart bombs" which could more accurately threaten potential Israeli targets.

Israeli leaders made clear that they have absolutely no plans to order a military strike on Syria. They said stepped up army, navy and air force preparations were only in response to intensified Syrian military activity, which began to be noticed soon after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad announced in the wake of Hizbullah's supposed victory in the Second Lebanon War that he was ready to take back the Israeli-captured Golan Heights by force. PM Olmert tried to dampen all war talk during the month, saying he does not expect clashes with Syria or Hizbullah this year. He also asked his cabinet ministers to stop talking about the possibility of conflict lest such words actually help trigger a showdown.

The Jerusalem Post dramatically headlined the Syrian threat on August 24, warning that the Assad regime appears to be preparing for a massive missile onslaught upon the small Jewish-ruled state, probably backed by missiles from Hizbullah and Iran. The report said the IDF brass is repositioning the sophisticated Arrow anti-missile system in the north to deal with the prospect of hundreds of ballistic Scud missiles, potentially tipped with chemical warheads, being simultaneously fired upon Israel.

Equally worrisome are hundreds of shorter range Hizbullah and Syrian rockets that can fly under Arrow's radar range. Israel's largest Hebrew daily, Yediot Ahronot, reported that Israeli officials now believe Hizbullah possesses chemical warheads supplied by Syria and paid for by Iran. This seemed to be confirmed by Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah who warned in a bombastic mid-August speech that Israel would "face a colossal surprise that would...change the fate of the region" if it attacked his Shiite forces in Lebanon.

Adding to volcanic Middle East tensions, press reports said the first of many announced Russian arms shipments to Syria was delivered in August-containing the Pantsyr-S1 anti-aircraft missiles defense system. With a range of about eight miles, it is said to pose a major tactical threat to any aircraft penetrating Syrian airspace, and even to Israeli jets operating over the Golan Heights. Media reports said Syria plans to send some of the weapons on to Iran in exchange for financial aid from Tehran.

In such dark days, it is certainly comforting to recall that no less than "The Lord has chosen Zion, He has desired it for His habitation. 'This is My resting place forever. Here I will dwell, for I have desired it'" (Psalm 132:13-14).