Israel Update for August 2007

David Dolan

Diplomatic moves toward a peaceful resolution of the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict were again evident during August, but at a far more subdued pace than in July. This came amid continuing skepticism, expressed by many Israeli politicians and pundits, that this is the right time to pursue such a lofty goal, or even the right goal to go after at all.

The main reason for such sentiments was the harrowing fact that the extremist Hamas movement further strengthened its stranglehold over the Gaza Strip during August, launching new attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians, while showing that it is still a major political force in parts of Judea and Samaria under direct Palestinian Authority control. At the same time, Hamas allies Hizbullah, Syria and Iran continued to utter boisterous war threats.

Palestinian rockets poured down almost daily from the Gaza Strip onto nearby Israeli communities during the hot days and nights of August, injuring several people and prompting more Israeli army action and further talk of a major military response up ahead. This came as an Israeli report was released stating that the radical Lebanese Hizbullah militia now possesses chemical and biological weapons and the means to deliver them to most parts of relatively tiny Israel.

The militia's main puppet master, Syria, claimed once again that Israel-under pressure from the United States-was preparing the ground for an imminent armed attack. Israeli officials countered by pointing to Syria's ongoing wide-scale military maneuvers. The renewed war jitters produced a statement from two senior Israeli government leaders that such a conflict is not on Israel's agenda, prompting some commentators to note that it takes only one party to start a war, which the other side can then not avoid.

Russian officials confirmed in August that they are planning to significantly strengthen their longstanding alliance with Syria by reopening naval bases that were closed in the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This came as the Assad regime in Damascus received new weapons shipments from the Kremlin while cynically expressing concern over a major new American military support package for Israel that was unveiled during the month, along with new funding for military purchases by Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The goal of the stepped up US financial aid was said to be the hamstringing of Iran in its apparent goal to become the new Middle East master, obviously with Russian assistance. Adding urgency to this goal, the radical Iranian president again threatened to wipe out America's closest ally in the region, Israel.

Peace Chatter Goes On

As requested by the American government, embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas met again in August to discuss various pressing issues between them. Another meeting is set for later this week. Media reports said the main topic was the parameters of a final status peace accord between the two sides, although both Abbas and Olmert denied that the informal talks had reached that critical stage.

However later in the month, new Israeli President Shimon Peres announced that "serious discussions" about a set of "fundamental principles" were indeed taking place between the two leaders. He added that some sort of agreement about the "principals" will be brought before an American-sponsored international Middle East peace conference scheduled to be held in the United States in November. Press reports said a deal would include Israel ceding Arab portions of Jerusalem to the PA, along with most of nearby Judea and Samaria.

Israeli political analysts said the Nobel peace prize winner was apparently referring to the outline of a final status peace accord, which many warned is bound to set off a new wave of anti-Israel and anti-PLO Fatah attacks by radical states and groups like Iran and Hamas, and also spark political upheaval and chaos inside of Israel since a final status framework accord would probably mandate mass Jewish evacuations from most portions of Judaism's biblical heartland, as demanded by the PA and its international backers, including the United States.

Prominent Israeli political analysts from across the spectrum, along with several Knesset members, opined that it was entirely premature for Olmert and Abbas-each under political siege in their own backyards-to be discussing such explosive issues as the possible re-division of Jerusalem and uprooting of hundreds of Israeli communities at this stage of the game. Among those who voiced this opinion was Olmert's very own Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, who is apparently preparing the ground for his expected campaign to return to the premier's chair by positioning himself smack dab in the middle of Israeli public opinion regarding any controversial final status accord.

America Exerts More Pressure

The Abbas-Olmert talks came as the main international advocate of renewed Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, visited the region once again. The top American diplomat supposedly came here, along with US Defense Secretary Bill Gates, to help push along the peace process. But many analysts said their real purpose was to shore up an anti-Iran regional alliance in the run up to possible US and/or Israeli military action against that country's outlawed nuclear program.

PM Olmert welcomed the senior American officials to his office in Jerusalem, as Abbas did to his headquarters in nearby Ramallah. The Palestinian leader-who later announced he would schedule new PA leadership and legislative elections early next year, but not be a candidate himself in them-expressed thanks to the Secretary of State for literally endorsing with her signature the Arab League's 2002 Saudi peace plan during a late July visit in Jeddah.

Facing an internal revolt in his own Kadima political party-with around one-third of Kadima's 29 Knesset members threatening to break away from the centrist party if Olmert continues at its helm-the unpopular Israeli leader was less enthusiastic over Rice's formal endorsement of the Arab peace plan. He realizes it calls for a total Israeli withdrawal from every inch of land captured during the 1967 Six Day War, which means some 350,000 Jews would need to be uprooted from their current homes, nearly half of those inside Jerusalem's municipal boundaries-a prospect hardly popular in Israel. Olmert also told the US diplomat he thought it was too soon for Israel to hand over security control in PA zones of control to armed Palestinian police forces, as she asked for, especially given the threat posed by Hamas loyalists residing in the area.