Israel Update for February 2011

Despite their justifiably deep anxieties, Israeli leaders said they were fairly certain the US-funded and trained Egyptian military would retain substantial power and influence in a post Mubarak Egypt, which would hopefully help keep the Camp David peace accords intact. Officials in Jerusalem were relieved when Egypt's ambassador to Washington, Sameh Shoukry, told the American ABC television network that the peace treaty with Israel would be honored by the interim military government which has taken temporary control of the country.

Addressing the annual meeting of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem on February 16, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said it was too early to tell where the street revolt in Egypt would lead to. However he warned that 'popular uprisings' against sitting dictators often end up paving the way for even more oppressive regimes to rise to power, such as happened in Russia in 1917, Iran in 1979 and Lebanon in 2006, where the ouster of Syrian occupation forces eventually acted to strengthen the militant Hizbullah movement. The Premier said Israel 'shares the world's hopes that Egypt will succeed in its quest for genuine reform, but unlike other democracies, we cannot just hope for the best, but must prepare for the worst.'

The Likud party leader indirectly admitted that he has been warning President Obama and other allied leaders of the possible dangerous outcome ahead in Egypt and the region, saying he has 'a responsibility to do whatever I can to increase the chances that the negative possibilities don't materialize.' He added that 'Israel cannot profess neutrality about the outcome, because above all, we want the future Egyptian government to remain committed to peace with Israel.'

PM Netanyahu's speech came as youthful leaders of the so-called April 6th movement that played a seminal role in the massive street revolt demanded that the next Egyptian government halt all natural gas sales to Israel. Political analysts said this was a worrisome indication that the 'reform' group is basically hostile to the Jewish state. Ironically, the productive gas fields in the Sinai Peninsula were first discovered and developed by Israel when it controlled the territory between 1967 and 1981. A pipeline transporting natural gas to Israel and Jordan was ambushed during the massive street demonstrations, temporarily cutting off supplies to both countries.

During his Jerusalem address, PM Netanyahu also commented on a recent speech delivered in Beirut by Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah. It was the radical cleric's first televised address since his movement managed to topple the pro-Western Hariri government in January and bring in a Hizbullah-backed cabinet headed by prime minister-designate Nagib Mikati. The Hizbullah leader maintained that Lebanese forces would 'conquer' Israel's northern Galilee region in any future war. Alluding to the fact that Nasrallah has stayed away from public events since the end of the 2006 conflict, Netanyahu said that 'whoever hides in a bunker should stay in the bunker.' In a message that was undoubtedly meant for a wider audience as well, the Premier added that 'No one should doubt Israel's strength, or its ability to defend itself. Nasrallah said he would capture the Galilee. I have news for you-you won't. We seek peace with all of our neighbors, but the IDF is prepared to defend Israel from any of its enemies.'

What Will The Brothers Do Next?

As they keep a wary eye on spreading instability in the wider Middle East and North Africa, Israeli leaders are closely following street protests in nearby Jordan, which shares a border with Israel that is nearly twice as long as the one with Egypt. Although the Jordanian government is considered to be in much better control of its streets than the Mubarak regime was-mainly due to the relative strength and popularity of the Hashemite monarchy led by King Abdullah-it nevertheless has a majority Palestinian population comprised mostly of young descendants of Arabs who fled their homes during the 1948 and 1967 Arab-Israeli wars. The Moslem Brotherhood movement is quite active in the country, mainly via its Hamas branch. It has been stepping up demands for the severing of the peace treaty with Israel, signed by the late King Hussein and Yitzhak Rabin in 1994.

In an attempt to forestall trouble in Palestinian Authority zones of control, PA Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad dissolved his cabinet on February 13 and announced that municipal elections would be held in July, followed by parliamentary and presidential elections in September-the month when the PA says it will declare unilateral statehood in all areas captured by IDF forces from Jordan in 1967, including the eastern half of Jerusalem. Hamas immediately denounced the move, saying it would not allow the twin ballots to take place in the Gaza Strip. This promoted PA President Mahmoud Abbas to declare he will not go forward with the planned elections if Hamas boycotts the vote. Earlier, the 75 year old leader announced that he will not seek reelection to the presidential post.

Widespread criticism of the PA increased last month after the controversial Al Jazeera Arab satellite news network published PA documents that were stolen from PA peace negotiator Saeb Erekat's office in Ramallah. The so-called 'Palestine Papers' detailed several significant concessions being considered by PA officials, including allowing contested Israeli settlement blocks to remain in place after a final peace accord is signed. Erekat resigned his position in February, taking full responsibility for the embarrassing theft. At the same time, he again blasted the Arab satellite channel, charging that its agents had engaged in 'forgery and distortion.' Many other regional Arab officials have echoed the PA criticism, saying Al Jazeera has become an advocate for the radical Islamic agenda fomented by the Muslim Brothers and Al Qaida. Both Sunni fundamentalist groups want an Islamic caliphate to be established that would enforce strict sharia law in all Arab countries, and eventually throughout the world.

The United Nations Security Council voted on a draft resolution on February 19 that termed all Israeli settlement communities illegal, implying they must all be abandoned as part of a final peace accord. Calling for an immediate halt to all Jewish construction in the disputed territories, the initiative was sponsored by 120 countries. The United States vetoed the resolution despite its frequent demand that Israel freeze home building in all portions of Jordan's former West Bank, including in eastern Jerusalem.

Meanwhile PA President Abbas said the Palestinians will not renounce their demand for control over the Old City's Armenian Christian Quarter as part of any final peace deal. Meeting with local Arab Christian leaders in Ramallah, he said 'The Palestinian leadership sticks to its position that regards the Armenian Quarter as an integral part of east Jerusalem, the capital of the independent Palestinian state.' The small Jerusalem Armenian Christian community is known to be unhappy with the prospect of returning to Arab-Muslim control after over four decades of moderate Israeli rule.

Iran Tests The Waters

Israeli leaders were not surprised when Iran tested the new interim Egyptian government by sending two naval warships through the Suez Canal for the first time in over thirty years. The ships were reportedly on their way to the Syrian port of Latakia, which is also used by Russian navy vessels. Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed grave concern over the Suez transit, which was approved by the new interim Egyptian government. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman called the action 'a provocation which demonstrates that the overconfidence of the Iranians is increasing from day to day.' He added that international leaders need to 'put the Iranians in their place.'

Thousands of Iranians took to the streets mid-month to call for regime change in their oppressive country. As occurred two years ago after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was fraudulently returned to power in rigged elections, the rouge regime used its Revolutionary Guard forces to violently suppress the protests. Claiming the demonstrations were 'heading nowhere,' the fanatic Shiite leader poked fun at the assaulted Iranian protestors on national television, saying they 'threw some dust towards the sun, but the dust will return to their eyes.' Unlike in 2009, President Obama publicly applauded the protesters while denouncing the cruel government crackdown. 'I find it ironic that you've got the Iranian regime pretending to celebrate what happened in Egypt, when in fact they have acted in direct contrast to what happened in Egypt by gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully.'