Israel Update for August 2006

The Battle Is Not Won

Both Olmert and Peretz confidently proclaimed early on in the conflict that Hizbullah's offensive power would be quickly crushed by superior IDF forces. Such boasting was echoed by several senior IDF commanders. Many later admitted that their statements reflected an arrogance that was not matched by the facts on the ground. Just how deeply Hizbullah was and is entrenched in Lebanese society (with Shiite Muslims comprising an estimated 35% of the population; growing every year due to the relatively high Shiite birth rate compared to Sunni Muslims and Maronite Catholics) was apparently significantly underestimated by most Israeli political and military leaders, charged various commentators. And given that the militia's main ground forces were stationed in southern Lebanon, and not in Beirut or the eastern Bekaa Valley, it was clear to many military experts early on in the conflict that a major ground operation north of the international border was unavoidable, even if this was apparently not immediately evident to Olmert, Peretz and Halutz.

Defense Minister Peretz claimed after the ceasefire went into effect that military leaders had not adequately briefed him on the overall Hizbullah threat, nor on the strength of the nefarious group. This was dismissed by senior IDF officers, who said they had pointed out to him when he assumed office last April that mushrooming Hizbullah militia forces could not be allowed to gather strength forever without being confronted by Israel. The controversial Peretz statement only added to calls for him to either resign or be quickly replaced by someone with greater military experience and comprehension, especially in light of official security assessments that renewed fighting with Hizbullah and/or Syrian forces could break out again at any time, and amid growing indications that an Israeli military showdown with Iran itself may be drawing near, given Tehran's late August announcement that it will defy the international community and carry on with its nuclear program. Meanwhile Peretz is facing a new internal challenge to his position as Labour party leader, led by disgruntled Labour Knesset members Ami Ayalon and former Tel Aviv University President Avishai Braverman.

In an attempt to pacify calls for his resignation, Ehud Olmert agreed in mid-August to set up an investigative committee headed by one of his political cronies, former IDF chief of staff Amnon Lipkin-Shahak. After that move was deemed insufficient by many critics, the Premier indicated he might turn the matter over to a formal State Commission of Inquiry, headed by a Supreme Court judge, which would be empowered to subpoena witnesses and issue binding judicial conclusions. However this was considered politically risky by senior Kadima politicians, who feared that their new centrist party might disintegrate if such a state commission came down hard on the government's performance, as most expect it would. This prompted Olmert to announce on August 28th that he would not establish a fully independent official state commission, but would instead appoint a beefed up panel to look into the government's handling of the war, and another to investigate the IDF leadership's role. The decision was immediately criticized as insufficient by many opposition politicians, along with several Labour party Knesset members.

Kadima is already reeling from the fact that its leader has felt it politically necessary to back away from the main issue that the party ran on in last March's national election-pushing forward with unilateral civilian uprootings from several dozen Jewish communities located inside of Judaism's biblical heartland, Judea and Samaria. Opinion polls now show that, in the wake of this summer's massive rocket assaults from southern Lebanon and continuing Palestinian Kassam strikes from the evacuated Gaza Strip, a vast majority of Israeli voters are horrified at the likely prospect that such abandoned land would become new launching pads for hostile rocket fire on Israel's nearby central cities. Olmert quickly realized that he would be finished politically if he clung to his controversial withdrawal plan in the face of such understandable public anxiety.

Many political analysts are pointing out that it is unprecedented for an Israeli government that is barely four months old to face so many calls for its dissolution, coming from all political spectrums. That the calls reflect widespread public sentiment became evident when several opinion polls were released in late August. One survey broadcast by Israel's Channel Two showed that the right-wing Likud party and the immigrant Yisrael Beiteinu party would more than double their current Knesset strength if elections were held today, with each capturing 24 seats. That is a huge jump from the 12 seat won by the Likud last March, and the 11 secured by Yisrael Beiteinu. Olmert's ruling Kadima party would drop from 29 seats to just 14, and the once dominant Labour party from 19 to an embarrassing 9 seats. But another poll found that Labour could capture 20 seats if the inexperienced Peretz were replaced by popular former IDF chief of staff Moshe Ya'alon. An Israel Radio survey showed that 29% of the public preferred Ya'alon as defense minister, while 17% named Kadima politician and former defense minister Shaul Mofaz. Only 5% named Peretz as their first choice. All of the opinion polls projected that right of center parties would capture a clear majority of the Knesset's 120 seats if elections were held now, whoever led the parties.

Is The War Really Over?

The question of who is ruling Israel and commanding IDF military forces is obviously highly important even in relatively tranquil times. But with the situation still incredibly unstable in southern Lebanon-where over 20,000 IDF soldiers are facing an unknown, but substantial number of armed Hizbullah militiamen-military analysts warn that full-scale fighting could erupt at any time. This is all the more likely given that the Lebanese government is refusing to order its army to disarm Hizbullah fighters, augmented by the fact that the expanded 15,000 man European-led UNIFIL force is taking much longer than anticipated to assemble and move to the region (many analysts said the slow pace was precisely due to the fact that hundreds of Hizbullah fighters, who are intensely hostile to the West, remain in place with their weapons).

Israeli military analysts say the greatest threat to the tenuous ceasefire is Syria and Iran's refusal to halt illegal weapons shipments to their proxy Lebanese force. Although UN resolution 1701 calls for such arms transfers to be frozen, the Assad regime in Damascus is balking at Israel's demand that UN forces assist Lebanese army troops in searching all trucks, ships and aircraft entering Lebanese territory for contraband weapons. This came after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad announced in a fiery post-war speech that he is ready to take back the Golan Heights by force if necessary, probably signaling that Israel's next military challenge-and one that is far more daunting than the battle with Lebanese Hizbullah fighters-is already looming on the horizon.

Although the future looks incredibly bleak in the crisis-plagued Middle East, the God of Israel still rules over all the earth. He knows the plans and purposes that He has for His people, to give us a much brighter future and abundant hope: "It is He who reveals the profound and hidden things; He knows what is in the darkness, and the light dwells with Him" (Daniel 2:22).