Israel Update for July 2007

Many veteran political analysts, such as Jerusalem Post senior editor David Horovitz, said the renewed, nearly frantic, peace moves were not at all due to some dramatic change in the situation on the ground, which if anything has become more complicated and dangerous with the Hamas takeover of Gaza. Instead it had much more to do with Bush's growing problems in Iraq, the threat of imminent conflict with Syria and Iran, and Olmert's need for some good news with the final Winograd Lebanon War report pending-expected to harshly condemn his handling of the 2006 conflict. Indeed, the State Comptroller released a 582 page report on July 18th that blasted Olmert and other senior officials for "severe failures" in the "home front" during the war.

Mahmoud Abbas welcomed Bush's pledge of increased American political support and stepped up financial aid while trying to keep some distance between Washington and his new PA administration. The Fatah chief is well aware that his new government, which has yet to win supposedly necessary approval from the Hamas-dominated Palestinian Legislative Council, is already being labeled as an American puppet by many Palestinians, including some Fatah supporters.

As expected, Hamas and its allies harshly condemned the Bush policy speech. Gaza spokesman Sami Abu Zuchri said the White House call for the establishment of a Palestinian state was nothing more than "a mere lie" designed to "deceive world public opinion and Palestinian opinion in particular." He added that Hamas "will never recognize Israeli occupation of Palestine and foreswear legitimate resistance to it" (i.e. terrorism). He further vowed that Hamas will "abort all US-Israeli conspiracies against the Palestinian people" and urged the entire Muslim world to "wake up" and support Hamas in its efforts to "defeat the Bush crusade against us."

The Hizbullah movement in Lebanon-holding special ceremonies to mark its self declared "victory over the Zionist entity's forces" during last year's Lebanon war-issued a statement denouncing the American President's speech and pledging full support for Hamas in its "struggle to liberate all of Palestine." This came as Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah boasted that his rogue force now possesses, and is ready to use, missiles that can reach "every part of occupied Palestine, not just the north." This contention was actually already stated by Israeli Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz earlier this year, who warned that the radical Shiite group had become fully equipped to launch another round of rocket assaults even more destructive than last year's 34 day blitz.

Peace With Syria?

Of far more concern to Israeli leaders were the reactions that came from Iran and Syria. The Damascus-based Hamas leadership joined its Gaza brethren in totally condemning the Bush policy speech, to no one's surprise. Apparently trying to gain a little financial help itself from Washington, or at least forestall what it claims are Israeli plans to launch a preemptive military strike, the Assad regime did not condemn the speech. In fact, Bush's remarks closely followed on the heels of a mid-July "reelection victory speech" by Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, who of course ran unopposed, in which he stated his readiness for peace with Israel after confirming earlier press reports that backchannel talks were already underway. Officials in Jerusalem later confirmed his revelation, indicating that clandestine talks, said to be mediated by Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, had made some progress.

Although PM Olmert officially welcomed Assad's comments, and again invited the Syrian strongman to come to Jerusalem, as the late Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat had done before the Camp David accords were signed in 1979, he expressed concern over Syria's preconditions for peace. Assad had stated that Israel must give "a written guarantee" at the start of any formal negotiations that Syria would receive the entire Golan Heights back after an accord was ratified. Syria considers the area to include the northeast shore of the Sea of Galilee, which Israel's hostile neighbor only captured in skirmishes with IDF forces between 1948 and 1967.

"Why bother to negotiate at all if the solution to the thorniest issue is already dictated by one of the sides?" one Israeli Foreign Ministry official asked rhetorically.

Assad also stated that any talks must be held publicly and with foreign mediation, which is less bothersome to Israeli officials, although they well recall that the current dictator's late father, Hafez Assad, frequently used such US-mediated negotiations in the 1990's to issue rancorous statements against Israel.

Israeli political analysts were divided on their advice as to how Olmert should respond to the Syrian leader's verbal overture. Some saw it as a legitimate opportunity to possibly avoid a destructive war with Damascus and weaken Iranian influence in the region. However most termed it a clever Syrian ploy to secure more financial and military aid from Tehran, and possibly from the Kremlin as well, which has been displaying an increasingly anti-American and anti-British worldview in recent months.

Axis Of Evil

If Bashar Assad was mainly trying to scare his chief Mideast ally into stepping up its support, the ploy apparently immediately worked. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rushed off to Damascus just two days after Assad spoke, reportedly pledging to give Syria an immediate one billion dollars in military aid if it promises to stay away from peace talks with Israel and continue its active support for Hamas against Fatah. Officials in Tehran denied that such a financial pledge had been made, and many Israeli analysts doubted the huge sum that was first published in a London-based Saudi-owned newspaper.

The report claimed most of the money would go toward the purchase of Russian fighter jets, tanks and helicopters, while Iran would also help Syria build a new missile plant and step up aid for its chemical weapons program, and even share some nuclear secrets with Damascus. Israeli officials say that generous Iranian financial aid in recent years has allowed Damascus to purchase Russian anti-tank rockets (some of which were smuggled into Hizbullah hands in Lebanon), anti-aircraft missile systems and other technologically advanced weapons, beginning in early 2005.

Still, many analysts said that the newly strengthened Syria-Iranian alliance that was spoken of by both Assad and Ahmadinejad during their July 19 meeting was undoubtedly a reality, with fresh supplies of Iranian money heading for Damascus, whatever the amount. They noted with special concern the post-summit statement by the rogue Iranian President that "Iran and Syria are united against our common enemies," adding ominously that "This summer we will see victory for our region's peoples, and defeat for our enemies." After reportedly meeting secretly with Hizbullah's Nasrallah during his stay in Damascus, Ahmadinejad added that "the Lebanese nation can thwart any plot through unity, solidarity and resistance."