Israel Update for January 2011

David Dolan

Government instability rocked portions of the Middle East and North Africa during January, especially in Lebanon, Tunisia, Algeria and Israel. Popular discontent with the governments of Jordan and Egypt was also said to be growing. More terror assaults upon local Christians marred life in Egypt and Iraq, while Christians came under government harassment in parts of neighboring Iran. Closer to home, a fresh spate of Palestinian rocket attacks prompted return IDF fire upon militant Islamic targets in the Gaza Strip. An Israeli soldier was killed during the exchanges.

The pro-Western Lebanese government collapsed the first half of January after the radical Iranian-backed Hizbullah movement pulled its cabinet ministers out of the ruling coalition. The dramatic move came just hours after the current Lebanese Prime Minister held emergency consultations at the White House in Washington with American President Barack Obama. The embattled Lebanese leader later went on to hold crisis talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris and Turkish officials in Ankara. Not by coincidence, the Lebanese government collapse also occurred just days before the first indictments were issued by a UN tribunal set up to investigate the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The Israeli coalition headed by Binyamin Netanyahu was also shaken up in mid January when Defense Minister Ehud Barak and several cabinet colleagues resigned from the government and quit the Labor party. The Israeli Premier quickly shored up his government by inducting Barak and his new, smaller 'Independence' party into the ruling coalition. Analysts said the long-simmering Labor party split might actually end up strengthening the Likud-led coalition even if it leaves Netanyahu with fewer backers in the Knesset.

Unrest gripped the Arab country of Tunisia during the month, forcing the country's long-ruling leader out of office. Rioting took place earlier in neighboring Algeria, with activists protesting rising food prices. Along with the instability gripping Beirut, the situation in the North African countries was being closely monitored by other autocratic governments throughout the Arab Middle East and the wider Muslim world, with current leaders fearing similar street clashes may affect their governments, especially the repressive Syrian regime and the pro-Western Hashemite government in Jordan.

An Israeli security official issued a controversial assessment during January as to how close Iran might be to constructing nuclear warheads. This came amid news reports linking both the United States and Israel to a destructive computer bug which has hampered Iran's threatening uranium enrichment programme.

Israel Monitors Crisis In Lebanon

Israeli political and military leaders have been closely following the deteriorating political situation in neighboring Lebanon after the pro-Western government led by Saad Hariri, son of the slain former prime minister, collapsed on January 12. Just hours after Hariri met with President Obama in Washington, Energy Minister Gebran Bassil told a packed press conference in Beirut that he and eleven other cabinet colleagues had resigned from the Hariri government. Bassil is a member the 'Christian Free Patriotic Movement,' a small political party led by veteran Lebanese politician Michel Aoun. The party is allied with Syria and the Shiite Lebanese Hizbullah movement. Two hand grenades exploded outside the party's office headquarters in Beirut on January 13. Supported by a majority of Lebanon's mushrooming Shiite community, Hizbullah held 10 of Lebanon's 30 cabinet seats in the Hariri government. Another cabinet minister, Adnan Sayyed Hussein, also resigned, which was just enough to surpass the number of resignations needed to bring down the crisis-ridden government.

Hizbullah officials said their movement had withdrawn from the coalition cabinet because Saad Hariri was 'unfit' to serve as Prime Minister. However Hizbullah's notorious clerical leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, later admitted that he had pulled his 10 ministers out of the patchwork government coalition because of the pending United Nations tribunal indictments that he acknowledged would point the finger at Hizbullah operatives for murdering PM Rafik Hariri on Valentine's Day in 2005. In a televised speech the day after his cabinet ministers exited the government, Nasrallah again charged that the UN commission was out 'to harm the resistance,' which is his term for the Iranian-Syrian axis working with Hizbullah to turn Lebanon into a Shiite-dominated puppet state.

The UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon, or UNSTL, formally issued its first indictments on January 17. Although no names were released to the public, it was widely believed they included several Hizbullah hit men identified in the Lebanese media as taking part in the murderous 2005 atrocity. UN officials indicated that the details of the indictments will probably not be released for several more weeks as UN officials in New York and Geneva and Lebanese authorities study the evidence to determine if it is enough to prosecute those named by the tribunal.

The French news agency AFP reported that the special UN commission uncovered substantial evidence that Iran's supreme clerical leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, personally ordered the Hariri assassination. Israeli analysts say if the report is correct, it will undoubtedly increase tensions, if not provoke armed clashes, between pro and anti-Iranian forces struggling for political and military control over Lebanon.

Hizbullah's satellite television station, Al-Manar, broadcast a blistering report on the evening of the 17th claiming that the Obama administration had ordered the UN tribunal to blame Hizbullah for the assassination despite supposed evidence that Israel was actually behind the operation. Israeli officials have long pointed out that it was completely against their country's interests to murder the elder Hariri. The slain politician was well known as a moderate Sunni Arab businessman with strong links to Saudi Arabia, France and the United States, and not hostile toward the Jewish State, unlike Hizbullah and its nefarious backers.

Keeping Close Watch

Trying to prevent street unrest if not renewed civil war in his divided country, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman quickly asked Saad Hariri, as well as other members of his moderate political party, to remain in their cabinet positions for the time being. He called for the formation of a 'transitional government' that would rule in Beirut until either new national elections are held, or a new coalition is somehow stitched together to carry on governing until Hariri's term officially ends in 2013. Analysts said the prospects for a sustainable coalition emerging before a national ballot is held are not very good, given that Hizbullah and its allies are strong enough to block support for any new Hariri government in the current Lebanese parliament.

Media reports said that soon after news reached Washington of the fresh Lebanese political turmoil, President Obama ordered American military forces in the eastern Mediterranean area to be prepare for possible action. Reports said the USS Enterprise aircraft carrier and its support strike group were under instructions to deploy in waters off of the Lebanese coast. Pentagon spokesman David Lapan told reporters that vigilance was called for since 'political tension, unrest and especially any violence that might follow are threats to regional stability and security.'