Israel Update for November 2005

David Dolan

Israel experienced massive political upheaval in November when veteran Labour politician Shimon Peres was unexpectedly voted out as party leader, replaced by the fiery Amir Peretz. This was quickly followed by Ariel Sharon's dramatic decision to abandon his ruling Likud party and form a new centrist party, expected to be called the "National Responsibility" party.

The election of the populist Peretz, who served as mayor of the often rocket-besieged town of Sderot near the Gaza Strip before heading the Histadrut workers federation, spelled the early demise of Sharon's unity government and a period of intense political turbulence ahead. Knesset elections, originally scheduled for one year from now, will now probably be held early next March. Any government formed by Sharon after that is predicted to be far less stable than the coalition he had stitched together with Peres.

Amir Peretz vowed during his successful campaign to quickly pull Labour out of Sharon's patchwork coalition. The party's central committee met on November 20th and endorsed Peretz's call. Thus, both Shimon Peres and Ariel Sharon-the last of the serving political remnants of Israel's elderly founding generation-may be nearing their final days on the always dramatic Middle East political stage. Political analysts said their best bets to survive would be if they banded together to form a new centrist political party. Opinion polls indicate that Sharon could well emerge victorious as head of his new party even without Peres on board, they noted, but it would then probably be difficult, if not impossible, for him to form a viable coalition government.

Opinion polls taken in the weeks before Labour members went to the polls predicted that Shimon Peres, who has held almost every cabinet position, including prime minister, during his half century in government service, would remain party leader despite his advanced age of 82. After all, most party members supposedly realized that the ultra-socialist Peretz-known for his table-thumping diatribes against big business capitalistic economic policies, and for his passionate defense of supposedly "exploited" Israeli workers (illustrated by his orchestration of many union work strikes labeled as completely unnecessary by a majority of the public)-was simply too far to the left to be elected prime minister.

BODY BLOWS TO BIG MEN

On primary voting day, thousands of hardcore Labour members flocked to the polls to yank the party back to its leftwing socialist roots. They apparently agreed with Amir Peretz that Israel's longtime dominant party needed to quickly disassociate itself from Sharon and his ruling Likud before national elections are held next year. The fact that all opinion polls forecast Peretz will not emerge as Israel's premier after the upcoming national ballot did not seem to overly bother them, given that the elderly Peres hardly fared much better in the surveys.

Shimon Peres reacted with unrestrained bitterness to the surprise Peretz triumph. This was heightened by the fact that it was Peres himself who had urged his reluctant senior Labour party comrades to accept Peretz back into the fold after he bolted the party in response to partially successful attempts by Labour politicians Ehud Barak and Haim Ramon to reduce the Histadrut's stranglehold over Israel's struggling economy.

The veteran Labour leader's sense of betrayal was further exacerbated by Peretz's demand that the party immediately quit Sharon's government, which leaves Peres without a government role going into the early 2006 general election. Despite postponing the decision for one week in deference to Peres, the new Labour leader made clear that he would not withdraw his demand that the deputy prime minister and his party comrades immediately leave the cabinet table. In the end, his will prevailed, leading to the premature demise of Sharon's national unity government.

SHARON LEAVES THE LIKUD

Ariel Sharon quickly realized that his best bet to survive the political storm that suddenly engulfed his government was to venture out on his own in a new political party. The need to do so was made clear to him after he suffered his own humiliating political defeat earlier in November. Several prominent Likud Knesset members threatened to block his appointment of former Jerusalem mayor Ehud Olmert and two other Sharon loyalists to new cabinet positions. Olmert had earlier been handpicked to replace Binyamin Netanyahu as Finance Minister after the former premier resigned from the government in early August to protest Sharon's unilateral withdrawal plan.

The ex-mayor, who is expected to follow Sharon out of the Likud along with around 12 other current Knesset members, had proved to be among Sharon's most stalwart supporters inside the divided party. This bought him the label of political opportunist from many Likud members who strongly oppose his stated desire to follow the sitting PM as Israel's government leader whenever the 77 year old Sharon leaves the political stage. In order to secure a formal endorsement of Olmert as Finance Minister from the entire Likud block, Sharon was forced to withdraw his nomination of two other Likud allies to head the Industry and Absorption ministries. Apparently realizing that he would need to deal with continuing Likud party discord if he ran again on the Likud party ticket, Sharon made his fateful decision to bolt the party he helped found nearly three decades ago and form a new centrist political party.

Sharon's dramatic move means that he will avoid a predicted excruciating battle with Netanyahu to head the Likud, with internal opinion polls suggesting the current leader could have suffered the same humiliating defeat as Peres did. However, the absence of Sharon in the expected February Likud leadership battle does not necessarily guarantee an easy time for Netanyahu. Popular Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz indicated he will stand for the Likud party leadership post, as did Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom. Analysts said Mofaz might just triumph over Netanyahu, given that many party members feel he is more acceptable to a broad spectrum of centrist Israeli voters. Still nobody evokes more passions among the party's nationalistic core than the American-educated former premier.

Sharon indirectly appealed to Peres to join his new party during an emotional cabinet meeting just one day before he resigned as Prime Minister and asked President Moshe Katzav to dissolve the Knesset (according to Israeli law, he will remain acting Premier until new elections are held).
"Shimon, this is the beginning of our joint work," he was quoted as saying while looking directly at his longtime friend and deputy premier. "I won't let you turn away from completing the missions you are destined for. I will call on your assistance in the future."

Analysts said partnering with Sharon in a new centrist party would act as a virtual guarantee that Peres would keep his senior leadership role in any new government headed by the current PM, probably as Foreign Minister. Together, they would make sweeping attempts to draw up final borders for Israel and produce a lasting peace accord with the Palestinians, said senior aids to Sharon. However, Amir Peretz pleaded with his predecessor not to jump off of Labour's ship, promising Peres the number two spot on Labour's Knesset list and a prominent role in any government formed by him. But this was not viewed by commentators as a terribly enticing proposal given that Peretz has little chance of emerging as Israel's next premier.