Israel Update for September 2011

David Dolan

Despite intense efforts during the past few months, the Israeli government, backed by the United States and the European Union, did not succeed in stopping Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas from taking his unilateral statehood proposal to the United Nations in late September. Now all anxiously wait to see what the results will be and how the action might affect Israel, the region and the world. Few expect the one-sided statehood bid will make things any better on the ground, with many stating just the opposite-it could open a can of worms that might plunge this turbulent region into new spasms of violence and possibly even warfare. It will also further harm the regional standing of those countries who have already stated their opposition to the move, including the United States and Great Britain.

Unlike the summer months which were filled with news reports of domestic unrest connected to the high cost of living in Israel, September's headlines were dominated by the Palestinian statehood bid. Political pundits from every persuasion analyzed the potential implications of the Palestinian Authority move, with most agreeing that the chances of arriving at a final peace accord between Israel and the PA had slipped further backwards, despite intense last minute efforts by European and American diplomats to persuade Abbas to give up his declared statehood declaration plans and return to the negotiating table. Fears for the future only increased after PA leaders threatened to dismantle their own autonomy government if they are punished financially by Israel and other countries for going through with their one-sided UN gambit, which is a major violation of the Oslo peace accords. This would hand responsibility for governing most Palestinians back to Israel, including an over three billion US dollar per year price tag to do so.

On the ground, Israeli security forces finalized preparations for a possible new round of Palestinian street violence despite pledges by Abbas and company that PA forces would prevent this from taking place. However Israeli officials were taking nothing for granted, given how high passions are over the issue of Palestinian statehood, which opinion surveys showed is supported by over 80% of the Arabs that Abbas governs. Among those who don't support the PA move is the rival Islamic Hamas movement, whose leaders called for a 'day of rage' on September 23rd, the day Abbas made his formal statehood call before the UN's General Assembly.

Most initial protests were relatively peaceful, although one Palestinian man, aged 33, was killed by IDF fire near the city of Nablus as a large crowd refused orders to disperse after alleging that local Jewish settlers were deliberately provoking them and damaging their crops. Elsewhere the same day, a Jewish driver and his one year old son were killed near Hebron when their car veered off the road and crashed. Police investigators later said they had discovered a rock covered in blood inside the wrecked car, indicating the driver had been hit by it, which undoubtedly caused the subsequent crash. Stone-throwing incidents were reported in other locations, and clashes occurred in east Jerusalem, near Ramallah, and elsewhere in the disputed territories.

Meanwhile Israel's growing regional isolation became even more apparent as Turkish leaders continued their almost daily anti-Israel tirades while threatening military action against the Jewish state. This came as Egyptian mobs in Cairo broke through the security wall at the Israeli embassy with steel rods before plundering the building, threatening the lives of several Israeli security guards trapped deep inside. This harrowing scene brought closer to the surface the shattering prospect that the next Egyptian government might revoke the Camp David peace treaty with Israel. One week later, anti-Israel protests were staged outside the embassy in Amman Jordan, forcing the Netanyahu government to evacuate Jewish staff as a precaution in order to prevent a recurrence of the ugly scene in Cairo.

Several other important developments occurred during the month. One was the approval by member states of the UN's International Energy Agency of an Egyptian resolution calling for all Middle East countries to sign an anti-nuclear weapons treaty. Despite concerns over Iran's nuclear programme, Israel strongly opposed the resolution, worrying that a UN confirmation of the extent of Jerusalem's existing nuclear weapons capabilities would increase pressure for such weapons to be destroyed. Israel's undeclared arsenal has served as a major deterrence against non-conventional attack from enemy states and heavily armed Muslim militias, and was a factor in former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's decision to make peace with the Jewish state in the late 1970s.

UN Set To Support PA Move

As of this writing, the final outcome of the Palestinian Authority's United Nations statehood bid is still unclear. The PA's decision to take their request for full statehood recognition first to the 15 member Security Council, where the United States has pledged to veto the move if necessary, will only prolong the UN process. Some UN officials said a final vote on the issue might not be held for several more weeks. There is even a possibility the PA proposal will be tabled, although most observers said that was unlikely given the rousing reception Mahmoud Abbas received when he presented his request for statehood status before the General Assembly.

Fiercely condemned by the PA for its veto threat, the Obama administration has been feverishly working to insure that the American President does not have to order a rare veto, which most analysts agree would only further harm the waning superpower's already tarnished image in the over fifty Muslim-dominated countries located in the Middle East and around the world. If eight other Security Council members either vote against the PA gambit or abstain, the White House would be sparred issuing a rare veto. Several Security Council members have already declared their support for the PA move, including China, Russia, Lebanon, Brazil and South Africa. Germany and Great Britain have said they will oppose it or abstain. The votes of most of the other member states have not been announced by their governments, but it is hoped that Nigeria, France, Portugal and Colombia will at least abstain, along with Bosnia.

Diplomats from the United States and Europe tried hard to talk the PA leader out of his unilateral statehood bid. Many pointed out that he was openly violating the Oslo peace accord, which is still legally binding after being signed by his PA predecessor, Yasser Arafat in the presence of US President Bill Clinton on the White House lawn in September, 1993. The accord states quite clearly that neither side will take major unilateral steps such as annexation (on Israel's part) or unilaterally declaring a final outcome of the conflict (as the PA is attempting to do), but will negotiate a permanent peace accord that is acceptable to both parties.

Some diplomats pointed out to the PA leader that his often stated contention the Israelis are not serious about resolving all outstanding issues is belied by the fact that no less than two far reaching final status proposals were put forth by Israeli leaders since the initial peace treaty was signed in 1993. The first proposal was made by former Labor party leader and then PM Ehud Barak in 2000, and the second by Kadima PM Ehud Olmert several years ago. Not only this, Binyamin Netanyahu publicly abandoned his long-held opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state to be located right next to tiny Israel-an alteration that would have been unthinkable by any Likud party leader just a few years ago-costing him support among many in his right-wing nationalist camp. On top of that, he ordered an extremely controversial freeze on all new Jewish construction in the disputed territories at the insistence of Barack Obama; a move that nearly caused the collapse of his centre-right coalition.

Still, Abbas stubbornly refused to change his mind, insisting he was 'tired of waiting' for a negotiated outcome that might never come. Many Israeli commentators replied that the Israeli government and public are just as tired of the Palestinian Authority, whose leaders frequently contend they want peace but will not meet their Israeli counterparts without securing a pre-determined outcome of the negotiations that they already know is unacceptable to the vast majority of Israelis. Of course, it was the PA leader who refused to come to the negotiating table even after Netanyahu caved into his pre-condition of a construction freeze in disputed portions of Judea and Samaria. Many Israeli analysts said Abbas has abundantly demonstrated for all to see that he has made up his mind to abandon the peace process altogether. This was hinted at earlier this year when he announced the formation of a 'national unity government' with the rival Hamas movement (which has yet to materialize) despite the fact that the radical Muslim group has repeatedly stated it will never alter its total opposition to holding peace talks with the detested Jewish state, which it insists must be destroyed and replaced by an Islamic state.

Indeed, I predicted this unpleasant outcome when the Oslo accord was signed in 1993. At the time, my view was hardly the dominant opinion of the Jerusalem-based press corps, to say the least. I opined that it would be impossible in the end for any Palestinian leader to abandon the long-held fundamentalist Muslim demand for Israel to cede sovereign control over portions of Jerusalem captured from Jordanian military forces in 1967. This was because the Arab-Israel conflict at its heart is not only a political dispute, but is basically a struggle over deeply held religious doctrine. This is especially the case for Muslims who believe that the Islamic conquest of Jerusalem-the most sacred city on earth for both Jews and Christians-is precisely the historic action that Muslims believe verified Muhammad's contention that he was bringing the final revelation of divine truth to mankind which supersedes and cancels out all previous claims.

For the very same reason, I wrote that it would ultimately be impossible for any Israeli leader to pull out of the holiest sections of what is in fact Judaism's central city, as was already the case over 1,500 years before Muhammad was even born. Still, I wrote it was technically possible for some sort of shared governing arrangement with the Palestinians to be hammered out by a left-leaning non observant Israeli leader like Ehud Barak despite strong opposition from several million right wing Israelis and religious Jews. Yet this would never be the case for any Palestinian leader facing not only the wrath of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Al Qaida and other extremist Arab groups, but also of hundreds of millions of non-Arab Muslims who will never accept the existence of a Jewish state on land ruled by Islamic powers for most of the past fifteen hundred years.