Israel Update for April 2007

By contrast, Syria's fulltime army has close to 400,000 active service personnel divided into 12 divisions. One of those, comprised of an estimated 10,000 soldiers, is a highly trained force assigned the task of deploying and guarding Syria's substantial missile and rocket arsenal. Another elite commando unit, also containing some 10,000 men, would serve as a formidable frontline hammer in expected ground fighting on the Golan Heights. Syria's navy is smaller than Israel's and not nearly as well equipped (Israel has taken possession of four German-built submarines in the past few years, said to be capable of firing nuclear warheads; something Syria cannot match). Still, it is also thought to have improved its Mediterranean Sea capabilities to an unknown extent in recent years.

Damascus has recently integrated a major new weapons acquisition into its existing arsenal. A Russian designed and supplied anti-aircraft system called the Stretlet has been deployed in several locations, which is believed to give Syrian gunners a much better chance of taking out Israeli aircraft in any conflict. However Israeli defense analysts believe it has been quite a few years since Syria received new foreign built tanks, fighter aircraft or armored vehicles, and point out that Israel still has a clear advantage in all of those areas, despite the fact that its standing army is less than half the size of Syria's. Israeli defense officials can call up an estimated 400,000 additional reserve soldiers in a full-scale emergency, but Syrian leaders can better that statistic as well, with nearly two million men believed to be enrolled in its standby military forces.

The Missile Threat

Israeli military analysts say that Syria has focused most of its war preparations on missile construction and deployments. Most worrisome is the fast-paced production of Scud D missiles, said to be considerably more advanced that the Scud B and C rockets that Saddam Hussein launched at Israel in 1991. Security officials say that Syria now possesses hundreds of the deadly missiles, which have a range of over 350 miles-meaning they can potentially strike every portion of Israel from Haifa to Eilat.

Older Scud missiles are also in Syria's arsenal, along with an estimated 60 Soviet-era SS-21 missiles that can each carry six warheads capable of striking independent targets. Foreign strategic think tanks say that Syria has at least 30 known ground launchers for its Scud missiles, dispersed in several locations. Israeli officials say Syria also possesses untold thousands of shorter range Katyusha rockets, similar to the ones that proved quite deadly and destructive to northern Israeli cities and towns last July and August.

The long-range Scud D and SS-21 missiles are thought to be deployable from three main locations inside Syria. One is situated not far from the Golan Heights border with Israel. Missiles fired from this site could reach all the way into Egypt and northern Saudi Arabia, say security analysts. However, this site is also the most vulnerable to an Israeli counterstrike due to its close proximity to the disputed border.

The largest missile storage and launching sites are located much further north. According to a news report produced by the CBN network's Jerusalem correspondent, Chris Mitchell, during April, a site located just a few miles north of Lebanon is "the heart of Syria's missile program." Another site further north acts is said to contain the largest chemical weapons manufacturing plants in the country.

Hama And Homs

The main Syrian missile site is situated in the city of Hama, with a reported population of nearly 1.5 million people. Hama is well-known in the Middle East, since it was partially destroyed-and thousands of its civilian residents mercilessly slaughtered-upon the orders of the late Syrian strongman Hafez Assad in 1981. Syrian military rockets were fired at large portions of Hama after a Muslim fundamentalist revolt against Assad's oppressive rule broke out in the city. The bodies of the dead were later callously plowed underground in place, instead of being given proper burials, since the brutal regime wanted to make clear it would not tolerate any such anti-government action in the future.

According to the CBN report, the Hama missile complex-situated nearly 250 miles north of Israel's border with Lebanon-contains some 30 hardened concrete bunkers where hundreds of Scud D missiles and many multiple rocket launchers are stored. Experts say that more than a ton of non-conventional chemical warheads could be fired from the site within minutes of an attack order being received.

Another major missile site is said to be located in the city of Homs ("Hims" in Arabic) with a population of over 1.5 million souls. The city is situated 20 miles from Lebanon's northern border with Syria, or some 200 miles north of Haifa. The CBN report said security experts have identified a previously unknown chemical warhead facility at the site. It said rocket-carrying military vehicles can drive through an underground hardened building at the sprawling complex where chemical warheads are stored, ready to be quickly fitted upon the ballistic missiles. Nearby missile launchers can then shoot the toxic warheads into the upper atmosphere in the direction of pre-calculated Israeli targets.

Good News And Bad News

Israeli security experts say that the highly sophisticated Arrow anti-missile and radar system, funded jointly by the United States and Israel, could probably successfully intercept most incoming Scuds. It could also take out longer-range Iranian Shahab-3 missiles, believed to have been produced in cooperation with North Korean and Pakistani specialists. Still, they warn that Syria is thought to possess vast stockpiles of deadly VX and Sarin nerve gas, so even a few successful strikes could prove devastating for Israeli population centers.

Experts also warn that Syria's short-range Katyusha rockets could prove to be very deadly and disruptive to Israel's northern residents, especially if Hizbullah joins in any massive Syrian strike. They note that if such rockets were launched from the southern Golan Heights, they could potentially reach further south than Lebanese rockets did in 2006. On top of that, Syria's standing arsenal, including rocket launchers, is believed to be much larger and generally more up to date than Hizbullah possessed during last summer's war.