Israel Update for August 2008

Analysts expect President Shimon Peres will ask whoever wins the primary contest to immediately begin attempts to form an alternative government to the Olmert-led coalition. The Premier is expected to remain in office until that process is completed. However most Israeli political analysts say that whether it is Livni or Mofaz who prevails, he or she will only be able to form a temporary government before new national elections are held late this year or in early 2009.

Opinion surveys in August showed Binyamin Netanyahu prevailing in a vote to elect a new Knesset, although Livni has been creeping up in most polls in recent weeks. Several show her either neck and neck or slightly ahead of the Likud leader. Surveys published in several newspapers during August showed a Livni-Led Kadima party would capture at least 30 seats in the Israeli parliament, amounting to one fourth of the chamber, with the Likud only receiving around 27 seats. Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Labor party would end up with no more than 14 seats if national elections were held today. However if Mofaz headed up the Kadima list, the surveys predict Netanyahu's party would prevail, with Labor remaining firmly in third place. The poor projections did not stop Barak from echoing John McCain's critique of Barack Obama in America by stating that Tzipi Livni "is not qualified to rule the country."

Unity Government?

Just after meeting with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon in New York, Tzipi Livni said she will attempt to form a broad unity government with all Zionist parties currently represented in the Knesset if she becomes Kadima's leader. This would include the one she was once a member of, the opposition Likud party. "We must leave the small considerations aside and create unity, both inwardly and outwardly," she told reporters, adding that the Israeli public "desperately needs to have its faith restored" in its top government leadership, given that the past four prime ministers have all been charged with various violations of public trust. However Netanyahu rejected her unity government appeal, averring that Kadima's leadership has failed in its attempts to govern the country and should step aside and let others grip the national steering wheel.

A possible spanner was thrown into the primary works on August 20 when party judges serving on Kadima's internal court announced that the contest was being suspended for the time being. This came after several of Olmert's allies petitioned the judicial body, claiming that several party rules were technically violated when the primary was announced in July. Although the judges agreed to suspend the vote, most political analysts believe it will end up being held as originally scheduled.

The petitioners made clear that they did not necessarily want the primary to be permanently cancelled, but only to be organized on a more solid basis. They noted this would take some time, giving Olmert a few extra weeks or months in power. One of them, an Arab party activist named Hussein Suleiman, admitted that he and his backers are hoping any additional time might allow the exiting PM to complete at least a framework peace accord with his Palestinian counterpart, Mahmoud Abbas.

Palestinians At War

Fierce clashes broke out in the Gaza Strip in early August between armed Hamas militiamen and their PLO Fatah adversaries. Eleven Palestinians, most of them gunmen, were killed in the heavy street fighting, with dozens of others injured. Hamas members blocked the roads to local hospitals in a successful attempt to prevent wounded Fatah gunmen from being treated. Abbas then appealed to Prime Minister Olmert to allow the wounded men and their families to leave the sealed off Gaza Strip in order to receive treatment in Israeli hospitals, which was quickly granted.

The 188 Palestinians who fled were said to be mostly members of the Hilles family, a Gaza clan that openly backs Abbas and opposed the Hamas coup last year. After 23 men received medical treatment, the Palestinians were transferred to Jericho, which is under full PA jurisdiction. Initially Abbas asked Israel to return the refugees back to the Gaza Strip, fearing that if they stayed in PA-controlled territory it could ignite a mass exodus of thousands of other Gaza Palestinians who similarly oppose the violent Muslim fundamentalist movement. However when 35 of the refugees reentered the Hamas-run area on their own and were promptly jailed, Abbas accepted the Israeli offer to transfer the rest to the Jordan valley Arab town.

Later in August, Hamas reportedly rejected a fresh Egyptian offer to help end the internal Palestinian bloodletting. Details of the proposal were published on August 19 by a Cairo newspaper. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak suggested that Hamas allow a 3,000 men pan Arab peacekeeping force into the Gaza Strip, which would be stationed near strategic Palestinian government and security centers. However Israel Radio later reported that Hamas leaders were quick to dismiss the suggestion.

Rockets Red Glare

Israeli security officials expressed grave concern when militiamen from the Hamas-led "Popular Resistance Committees" unveiled what they claimed was a new longer range version of a rocket named after deceased Egyptian President Gamal Nasser, who led the united Arab campaign to destroy Israel in 1967. The so-called "Nasser-4" rocket was said by the militiamen to have a range of 16 miles, which would be twice the distance the current version can travel. If true, the rocket could easily reach targets in the coastal city of Ashdod where Israel's second largest commercial seaport is located.

Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev said the latest Palestinian rocket unveiling was a clear violation of the six month ceasefire between Israel and Hamas hammered out in Cairo earlier this year. He warned that Israel "has the right to act" if the timeout is merely "serving as a front for extremists in Gaza to rearm and regroup." Officials believe that Hamas is indeed using the relative calm to build up its weapons stockpile and to induct new members into its estimated 20,000 man militia force in preparation for another round of rocket attacks upon Israeli communities when the ceasefire expires early next year, if not before.

All border crossings into Gaza were sealed later in the month when a Palestinian Kassam rocket landed in Israel's Negev desert. Defense Minister Barak ordered the move, saying no food or other supplies would be allowed into the coastal zone until a new security assessment was made by senior government and military leaders. The rocket caused no casualties or damage, but did set off Israel's early warning sirens, forcing thousands of nearby citizens to take immediate shelter. It was not the first time the odd rocket has been launched into Israel since the shaky ceasefire went into effect in late June. Earlier incidents also prompted a temporary shutdown of the border crossings, which have been frequently targeted for attack by Palestinian terrorists.