Israel Update for August 2008

David Dolan

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced in late July that he will step down as Israel's senior government leader after the results of a Kadima party primary vote become public next month. However several of the Premier's loyal party supporters later attempted to put off the September 17 election in order to give the veteran politician more time to negotiate a final peace treaty with the Palestinians. Meanwhile opinion surveys showed the race to follow Olmert tightening in his party, with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni barely ahead of former defense minister and armed forces chief Shaul Mofaz. Opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu remains more popular than either Kadima candidate in most of the polls.

The political jockeying came while tensions remained high between Hamas and Israel as more Palestinian rockets landed on Jewish communities in a clear violation of June's ceasefire agreement. This came amid the worst internal Palestinian fighting in the Gaza Strip since Hamas seized control of the small coastal zone in June 2007. Meanwhile recent tensions with the Palestinian Authority eased a bit after the Israeli cabinet agreed in mid-August to free nearly 200 Palestinian prisoners in a goodwill gesture to PA leaders. The decision was condemned by many opposition politicians as yet another government betrayal of Israel's vital security interests.

In the north, army forces kept a close eye on suspicious Hizbullah movements amid additional reports that the radical Lebanese Shiite movement may be preparing for another round of fighting in the coming days. Hizbullah leaders announced they will attack Israel if Iran's ongoing nuclear program is targeted by the Israeli military.

Officials were also warily monitoring indications that Russia is preparing to sell more high tech weapons systems to nearby Syria. The internationally condemned Russian military push into the small neighboring country of Georgia was also being watched with increasing trepidation in Jerusalem. Concerns increased sharply when a Russian army general angrily pointed out that Israel has significantly helped arm Georgia in recent years, in apparent cooperation with the United States which strongly supports the country's bid to join the NATO alliance.

Prime Minister Vows To Resign

Ehud Olmert is apparently destined to become one of Israel's shortest serving prime ministers with his testy surprise announcement on July 30 that he will step down as head of government when a new Kadima party leader is chosen in September's scheduled primary vote. While not even attempting to hide his intense anger over being essentially forced out of office by his own party, the embattled PM said he would not throw his hat into the primary ring due to "the mudslinging crusade which is being conducted against me, even by decent people who are truly concerned for the state and its image." He added that the purported slander campaign "brings up a question that I cannot and will not avoid: What is more important, my personal justice, or the public good?"

Olmert lashed out at his opponents without specifically naming any of them. He maintained that "almost from day one, I had to repel vicious attacks while making critical decisions that are pertinent to the security of Israel and its existence." Failing to even mention the six police probes into possible criminal activity committed by him, the departing Premier complained that "things have been blown completely out of proportion. Have I made mistakes throughout my long years of activity? Definitely yes, and I regret and am sorry for them. But is the true picture being presented to the public? Definitely not."

The embattled Prime Minister-who has faced fierce political firestorms ever since he took his country to war against the heavily armed Hizbullah militia just months after taking office following Ariel Sharon's massive stroke in early 2006-pledged to carry on negotiating peace with the Palestinian Authority and Syria. Speaking with palpable emotion, he defended his record, averring that "Israel's position has improved" since he came to power and crowing that he was "proud of these achievements." He also insisted he would eventually prove to be innocent of all the criminal allegations against him.

Olmert again stated that he will immediately resign if state prosecutors decide to indict him. The PM was questioned for several hours by police investigators two days after proclaiming that he will not enter the Kadima primary race. The latest probe reportedly focused on significant evidence that he had double billed the government and various private organizations for airplane flights to the United States and elsewhere and then pocketed the surplus money allotted to him. Analysts said the evidence was substantial enough to prompt a formal indictment at virtually any time.

In another clear sign that Olmert's ship is sinking fast, his top aid suddenly resigned just one day after the PM announced he will not participate in the Kadima leadership vote. Yoram Turbowicz, who has served as Olmert's chief of staff, main envoy to Washington and most trusted advisor since 2006, has also been in charge of Israel's indirect peace talks with Syria.

Although Turbowicz said he will continue to serve as an unofficial advisor to Olmert for the time being, government officials admitted that the peace talks, being mediated by Turkey, will probably languish until a new Israeli leader comes to power. This came as the Israeli Ma'ariv newspaper reported that a peace framework deal has already been hammered out that features a commitment by the Assad regime to break all ties with Iran and stop arming Hizbullah forces in Lebanon in exchange for a complete Israeli pullout from the strategic Golan Heights, captured from Syria in 1967.

The Race Is On!

Most of Olmert's Kadima cabinet colleagues welcomed his decision not to contest the upcoming primary, although several said it was with sorrow that they did so. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was visibly exuberant over her chance to become Israel's next leader, following in the footsteps of the late Golda Meir who was the country's first and so far only female premier. Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz, who believes he can beat Livni in the mid September party vote due to his previous vast military experience as both the overall armed forces commander and later as defense minister, likewise did not hide his enthusiasm at being given the sudden chance to seize the top post.

The two leading candidates are expected to compete in a runoff election one week after the initial primary vote unless either one captures the required minimum 50% in the first go around, as current polls suggest they won't. Two other politicians are participating in the election, Internal Security Minister and former Mossad chief Avi Dichter and Interior Minister Meir Shitreet. However the two politicians are significantly behind the leading contenders in recent opinion surveys. The polls show that in the anticipated second contest, Livni would handily beat Mofaz by around eight points.