Israel Update for March 2009

Two State Solution

The Kadima leader also again stressed her commitment to the long touted "two state solution" of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, meaning a sovereign Palestinian state would arise in Judaism's biblical heartland, Judea and Samaria, with Jerusalem at its center, along with the Gaza Strip. Along with many Israelis, Netanyahu believes that the time is hardly ripe for such a "solution" given that any independent Palestinian state may well fall under Hamas control, and thus become an outpost for Iran and the Lebanese Hizbullah movement-and this just miles from Israel's largest urban civilian and government centers, military bases and transport hubs.

Meanwhile Netanyahu continued his attempts to woo the 13 seat Labor party into his coalition. Party leader Ehud Barak did not hide his desire to remain in his prestigious post as Defense Minister, but media reports said he was only able to persuade five of his party legislators to join him on board, meaning a majority wish to head to the opposition. Analysts said the long dominant party might split apart if Barak accepts Netanyahu's offer-a prospect that the Labor leader cannot afford to gamble on. Therefore most expect a narrow right of center coalition will be formed instead, with the possibility of other parties joining it if the security situation worsens. Labor party leaders were slated to hold a special concave to discuss the issue on March 24.

Army radio reported on March 20 that the Likud leader had obtained unspecified "new and serious information" on the security threat posed by Iran, and on the Israeli economic downturn associated with the world financial crisis, which caused him to ask for a two week extension of his allotted time to try to form a broad coalition government. President Shimon Peres readily granted him the extra time, as allowed under Israeli law. Still, most political pundits expect Kadima and Labor to stay on the sidelines, at least for the time being.

Apart from serious security and economic concerns, analysts say the Likud leader has another major reason for wanting to form a broader coalition government-widespread skepticism and opposition to the prospect of Avigdor Lieberman becoming Israel's chief diplomat in a time of mounting national and world crisis.

The Yisrael Beiteinu leader is not only facing possible criminal indictment, but also opposition due to some of his past statements, including that Israel's Arab population should be transferred to the control of a future Palestinian state in exchange for Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria being incorporated into Israel's final borders, his strongly negative remarks about Egypt's ruling Mubarak regime, along with controversial comments on several other hot button issues.

This has left him with many political opponents both at home and abroad. Netanyahu knows that any substantial military action against Iran in particular will leave Israel extremely exposed internationally, and he therefore prefers a more centrist politician to serve as his Foreign Minister.

Palestinian Unity Talks Stall

Egyptian officials expressed frustration in March as talks they were mediating between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas became deadlocked. Cairo had been attempting to get the two sides to agree to the formation of a Palestinian unity government that would formally return Hamas as a political player over Palestinian Authority-ruled portions of Jordan's former West Bank as well as the Gaza Strip, which was seized exclusively by Hamas in a violent coup in June 2007. Egyptian mediators ordered negotiators from both sides to return home until they are ready to make significant compromises to reach a unity deal. However a Fatah official said the two sides would resume their bargaining after an Arab summit meeting is held in late March.

Palestinian Authority officials said the main sticking point was a Hamas demand that it be given a leading role in any new Palestinian interim government. Such a government would rule until fresh Palestinian legislative and presidential elections could be held, probably late this year. Another major issue was whether or not Hamas would honor previous peace treaty commitments made by PA officials, especially the Oslo peace accords signed by the late PLO chief Yasser Arafat in 1993 and 1995. Those commitments included a formal recognition of Israel's permanent existence in the Middle East and an end to all terrorist violence against Israeli civilians. Hamas negotiators again balked at the prospect of ending their popular jihad war against "the Zionist enemy." Hamas negotiator Fawzi Barhoum told reporters that his notorious group would never recognize Israel or honor Arafat's signed peace commitments.

At the same time, the army launched a new crackdown on Hamas operatives in the West Bank on March 19, arresting 12 senior activists in pre dawn raids. Among those detained were four Hamas members of the Palestinian Legislative Council. The operation came just hours after reconciliation talks broke down in Cairo.

Meanwhile Egyptian government leaders asked the Obama administration to allow Hamas to participate in any new Palestinian unity government. This came after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated in a visit to Israel earlier in the month that the US would boycott any Palestinian Authority government that included the extremist Iranian backed movement unless Hamas alters its call for Israel's destruction and recognizes its permanent existence. She also repeated American support for a "two state solution" to the conflict during meetings with Prime Minister Netanyahu and PA leader Mahmoud Abbas. Netanyahu again stated that forming such a state is premature at this time, given that Hamas would probably strongly influence it, if not actually end up ruling it.

With Palestinian rockets continuing to land inside Israeli territory near the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army launched additional Air Force strikes during March upon illicit smuggling tunnels being built along the southern Gaza border with Egypt. Acting PM Ehud Olmert again warned that additional and substantial military action would be launched if the rocket assaults continue. Hamas claimed that it was not behind the attacks, but Israeli officials repeated their position that the renegade group is at the very least responsible for halting them since it controls the small coastal zone.

Olmert told his cabinet on March 22 that "a disaster" was narrowly averted the night before when Israeli security forces successfully defused a powerful car bomb that had been set to explode outside a crowded Haifa shopping mall. He said that only "the vigilance of citizens and the quick response by police and security services prevented it." The successfully thwarted terror attack was claimed by a group calling itself "Free Galilee," which officials believe is a Muslim fundamentalist group linked to Hamas that operates from Arab towns near Haifa. Olmert told his ministers that "the launch bases for the group include the West Bank, where Hamas wishes to strengthen its infrastructure and status, while continuing its terror activity to cause severe damage to Israeli citizens."