Israel Update for March 2009

David Dolan

Prime Minister designate Binyamin Netanyahu struggled to put together a viable coalition government during March. The political party that was expected to be his main ally-the right wing Yisrael Beiteinu party-refused to sign a coalition agreement unless various conditions were met that Netanyahu found unacceptable. However by mid-month, most of the obstacles had been overcome, and Netanyahu initialed his first coalition pact with Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman on March 15. Under the agreement, Lieberman will assume the important post of Foreign Minister in the new government. The Likud leader followed this up by finalizing a pact with the religious Shas party on March 23, giving him a total of 53 seats as the basis of his coalition.

Netanyahu was granted a two week extension to form a viable coalition by President Shimon Peres on March 20. The extension was requested by the Likud leader in an attempt to draw the currently ruling Kadima party and the smaller Labor party into a broad national unity government. However Kadima, which garnered the most votes in the February 10 election, continued to rebuff the Likud leader's offer to join such a coalition. Netanyahu did at least manage to meet again with party leader Tzipi Livni in an attempt to persuade her to join his government. But she repeated her insistence that she must rotate with Netanyahu as Prime Minister in any such coalition-a condition the former Premier is not willing to accept.

Attempts to negotiate a release of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit stalled when the Israeli government balked at demands being made by the radical Palestinian Hamas movement, which kidnapped the soldier in June 2007. This came as reconciliation talks in Cairo between Hamas and Palestinian Authority officials produced no fruit, causing Egyptian leaders to send rival negotiators home.

Israeli media outlets published reports in March that questioned the morality of various actions carried out by IDF soldiers during the Gaza conflict that ended in mid-January. The reports produced immediate ripples on the Israeli political stage, with some calling for an official government probe of how the war was conducted. Others said the country could not afford another gut wrenching military investigation while the threat of further clashes with Hamas was a real possibility this year, along with the sobering prospect of a major conflict with Iran and the Lebanese Hizbullah movement, backed by Syria.

Coalition Deal Signed With Yisrael Beiteinu

Israeli Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu struggled to form a viable coalition government during March as one potential partner after another posited political demands that the veteran Likud leader found unacceptable. However the former Premier did manage to finally secure a coalition pact with the third largest party in the Knesset, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Sephardic Orthodox Shas party one week later. The first accord was signed on March 16 after weeks of intense negotiations that had seemingly broken down several times. The main sticking points, as expected, were Lieberman's initial demand that non-religious civil marriages be allowed in Israel, along with a pledge by the government to carry out "regime change" in the Gaza Strip-in other words, to militarily oust Hamas from power.

Netanyahu pointed out that he would never be able to persuade any of the three religious parties he needs in a narrow center-right coalition to agree to such a significant change in the long-established Orthodox-run marriage system. He also stressed that while he shared Lieberman's desire to see Hamas removed from power once and for all, he did not want to spell out in advance how or when a military operation to achieve that far reaching goal might take place, especially with the Iranian nuclear threat looming on the horizon.

As part of the coalition pact, Lieberman agreed to drop his demands for civil marriages and Gaza regime change in exchange for being appointed to the prestigious and influential post of Foreign Minister in a narrow right of center government. He also secured Netanyahu's commitment to name several of his Knesset party members to senior cabinet posts, including the strategic Internal Security ministry, the Tourism ministry, Infrastructure ministry, and the less influential Immigrant Absorption ministry. Lieberman also secured a pledge from the Likud party leader that the Knesset's Law and Justice Committee and the Constitution Committee, which works closely with the Justice ministry, be headed by Yisrael Beiteinu legislators. This means that nearly half of Lieberman's 15 Knesset legislators would hold significant posts in the new government and Knesset.

Proving once again that Israeli politics are rarely dull and predictable, it was reported shortly after the coalition pact was signed that Israeli police investigators are stepping up a nearly 10 year criminal probe of Lieberman, who is suspected of committing bribery, breach of trust, fraud and money laundering when he served in the first Netanyahu government in the 1990s. This came after a senior aid to Attorney General Menachem Manuz said a significant amount of new information had been uncovered over the past 12 months concerning the various allegations against Lieberman. This revelation was later confirmed by Asaf Valpish, who heads the National Fraud Unit. He averred that new evidence is coming in all the time. The populist politician will shortly be questioned by the police, said the Attorney General's office, which could force Lieberman out of any high government portfolio, with unsettling consequences for Netanyahu's expected narrow coalition.

Attempts Continue To Form Unity Government

Netanyahu reportedly stressed to his longtime political associate, who immigrated to Israel from Azerbaijan in 1978, that he would have to assign some of the promised government portfolios and parliamentary leadership positions to other politicians if he is able to form a broader national unity coalition in the coming days. Analysts say it is particularly clear that Kadima would at least demand the Foreign Ministry position for party leader Tzipi Livni if she agrees to join a Likud led government.

However the prospects of that happening appeared slim at best after Netanyahu held an unscheduled meeting with the current Foreign Minister on March 14. Noting that one clause in his accord with Lieberman stressed that both share the goal of establishing such a broad government, he reportedly promised to pursue a unity coalition even after he announces the formation of a narrow government of just over 60 seats. Such an announcement is expected by the end of March.

In other words, the Likud leader would lure his final bait before Kadima and Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Labor party after insuring that he would indeed be sworn in as Prime Minister in the coming days. Facing the relative weakness of sitting in the political opposition wilderness, Netanyahu hopes that at least one of the remaining large parties will jump on board his coalition train, giving his government a cushion it will never secure if he remains the head of a bare majority right wing government.

However media reports said that Livni again insisted that she be allowed to rotate with the Likud leader as head of government, as Yitzhak Shamir and Shimon Peres did in the mid-1980s. But Netanyahu deflated her trial balloon, saying he intends to serve in the top post during the government's full four year term.