Meanwhile Netanyahu has vowed to thwart the new Kadima leader's declared goal of establishing a broad unity government, which she says would be designed to help heal the country after nearly three years under the deeply unpopular Ehud Olmert. The Likud chief insists it is time for the entire country to choose a new premier, not just registered members of the embattled Kadima party. Most political analysts predict that fresh Knesset elections, currently scheduled for late 2010, will indeed be moved up to sometime next year even if Livni succeeds in forming a workable coalition, especially if any preliminary peace accord is initialed with the Palestinian Authority.

Mofaz Calls It Quits

Binyamin Netanyahu was among many politicians who predicted that the ruling Kadima party will soon fall to pieces in the wake of Livni's razor thin victory. This contention was significantly buttressed when Shaul Mofaz abruptly resigned from the cabinet and the Knesset just one day after the close leadership ballot, saying he wanted "to take time out" to reassess his future goals and moves. The action stunned Livni, who attempted to phone Mofaz to try to persuade him to change his mind. The narrowly defeated politician refused to even take her call, which many saw as a severe personal blow to Livni's new party leadership status.

The Likud leader hailed the retiring Mofaz as "a top notch guy who has greatly contributed to Israel's security over many years of distinguished service in the Israeli Defense Forces." Netanyahu added that Mofaz's exit from the political stage, even if just temporary, will greatly weaken any new government that Livni is able to establish. Another prominent Knesset politician, Labor's Ofir Paz-Pines, echoed this sentiment, saying the unexpected Mofaz resignation showed that "the Kadima party is disintegrating before our very eyes."

Mofaz, who was born in Iran and appointed defense minister by former PM Sharon in 2002, resisted calls from many party backers that he demand a recount of the close primary vote despite the fact that Livni had beaten him by only just over one per cent. Instead he congratulated the new leader during his concession speech, but said he would not serve in any cabinet that she sets up.

Political analysts agreed that the dramatic departure will greatly weaken the ruling party, along with any coalition government that Livni establishes. It will also increase public perception that Kadima, established by Sharon in late 2005 as a supposedly centrist party, had become a virtual clone of the leftist Labor party under Olmert's controversial leadership.

The political intrigue intensified when a leading Mofaz supporter, Kadima parliament member Ronit Tirosh, charged soon after the primary outcome was announced that the vote counting process was "riddled with irregularities that bordered on criminal activity." Speaking on Israel Radio, she challenged the legality of the contest, pointing out that a top Livni aide was present when the votes were counted, while no one was allowed to view the process from the Mofaz camp. She maintained this might have influenced the outcome. Tirosh also noted that the Mofaz campaign had filed several written complaints over this and other questionable matters with the Kadima party's election committee chairman, Dan Arbel, who she said refused to even look at the objections, let alone formally rule on them.

The Shas Factor

Using his longtime ties to various religious political parties forged during nearly ten years as Jerusalem's mayor, the back slapping Olmert was able to fairly easily bring the largest Orthodox party, Shas, on board his coalition train in the spring of 2006. However venerated Rabbi Ovadia Yosef and other leaders of the Knesset's third largest party had become increasingly nervous about their inclusion in his government, especially as it became clear earlier this year that Olmert and Livni might be willing to re-divide Jerusalem as part of a final peace deal.

Livni was clearly the most dovish of the four candidates who ran for Kadima party leader-strongly backing Sharon's controversial 2005 Gaza Strip pullout and playing a pivotal role in the US-backed peace process with the Palestinian Authority. Therefore it is thought highly unlikely that Shas, with 12 Knesset seats, will join any coalition she attempts to form unless it also includes the Likud and other right wing and religious parties. However the new Kadima leader's pledge to continue negotiating with PA leader Mahmoud Abbas will probably prevent all such parties from joining any government she attempts to set up.

Although more hidden from public view, some analysts insist that another serious obstacle in Livni's way could be the basic fact that she is a woman. They point out that female leaders of any kind are almost unheard of in most religious parties and institutions. "Under Orthodox law, Rabbi Yosef will not even be allowed to shake her hand," noted one analyst on Israel television.

If the doors on her right remain tightly closed as expected, Livni will have no other choice but to turn to left wing parties to form a viable coalition. While Labor's Ehud Barak will probably be willing to join as noted above, along with the small seven-seat Pensioners Party and the five-seat Meretz socialist party, it would not have the necessary majority of 61 Knesset backers without the inclusion of Shas.

Still, Livni believes she could rely upon at least some Arab party Knesset legislators to back her from outside the coalition if she brings a final peace deal to the legislature for an up or down vote. However many Israelis would strongly object if such critical issues as the future of Jerusalem, permanent borders and Palestinian refugees were in effect decided by a handful of Arab politicians, especially since some are stridently anti-Israel in their public comments and actions.

Jerusalem On The Chopping Block