Israel Update for August 2005

As Netanyahu pointed out, most Israeli security experts are predicting a violent new Palestinian attrition war to break out in the coming months, led by Hamas and other anti-peace groups, but quietly supported by the feeble PLO-dominated Palestinian Authority. In fact, two Palestinian rockets were fired at the Israeli town of Sderot just two days after the civilian uprootings from Gaza and Samaria were completed. That same day, Iranian-built rockets were shot from Lebanon into northern Israel. In Jerusalem, a 21 year old Jewish seminary student from London was stabbed to death in the Old City, followed by the wounding in Hebron of an Israeli Border Policeman by a knife-wielding terrorist outside of Abraham's Tomb. A return to full-scale violence is thought to be particularly likely soon after recently rescheduled Palestinian parliamentary elections are held next January, especially if Hamas does relatively well in the ballot box, as current opinion polls indicate.

Ironically, Israeli political analysts say one of the main reasons why Palestinian militants intend to launch a new round of violence early next year is to force Israeli voters to choose the relatively hard-line Netanyahu as Israel's next leader, as they did following a massive terrorist outburst in early 1996. Hamas and its radical backers in Iran and Syria had in fact hoped that Sharon's 2001 electoral triumph would do the trick, putting an end to the American-sponsored peace process and opening the door for unbridled jihad against the detested "Zionist entity." Instead, the veteran Likud politician surprised almost everyone by teaming up with Oslo-advocates Shimon Peres and Yossi Beilen, while shunning Netanyahu and other Likud mainstays, along with the National Religious Party and other former "land of Israel" allies.

However, Netanyahu has made clear that he has "been there and done that." He is thought to be very unlikely to adopt a more centrist position on the renamed Road Map "land for peace" process after being burned when bowing to intense demands by former US President Bill Clinton to jump onto the sinking Oslo ship in 1997. Therefore, his potential election might prove a more certain bet for rejectionist Palestinian groups and their regional comrades who are intent on derailing any "two-state solution" (in lieu of Israel's complete annihilation) before it ever gets beyond the talking stages.

To help insure that he remains in power, Sharon is said to be seriously considering forming a new "centrist" political party with Labor leader Peres and Shinui party leader Tommy Lapid. The three aging politicians might even take turns serving as premier if such a three-way union takes place, say some analysts. The bonus for Peres and Lapid is that they would co-lead a party projected to secure nearly half of all 120 Knesset seats, as opposed to heading parties that are projected to lose seats in the next national elections-due to be held before late November next year. Heading a halved Likud party under this scenario, Netanyahu is forecast to secure less than 20 seats, meaning he would not be able to form a viable coalition government even if other right wing and religious parties perform better than expected.

As the dramatic withdrawals of August 2005 came to an end, it seemed quite clear that further internal and external conflict, and not tranquility, lies just ahead. But so does the return of Israel's Eternal King, whose "going forth is as certain as the dawn," and who will come "like the spring rain watering the earth" (Hosea 6:3).