Israel Update for October 2007

Rice Returns Amid Negotiating Stalemate

Americas senior diplomat returned to the turbulent Middle East yet again during October, obstensively to further along the recently revived Israeli-Palestinian peace process. This came as puzzled Israeli analysts noted yet again that the current realities do not at all give any indication that a final peace treaty is even remotely achievable in the current political climate. They note that the Israeli scene is dominated by an Israeli premier whose popularity ratings remain at record lows. On the other side, the Palestinians are ruled by a weak PLO leader who lost control over one-third of his people and territory to the radical Islamic Hamas movement last June. Some analysts speculated again that the Secretary of State's frequent visits to the region this year probably have more to do with preparing the diplomatic ground for an American military assault on Iran's nuclear program than with the sludge-filled Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

State Department officials traveling with Rice told reporters at the end of her latest Mideast tour-which as usual included stops in key U.S. allies in the Gulf region-that Olmert and Abbas had agreed to issue a "joint declaration" at a planned peace conference to be held in the United States later this year. They said the declaration would "address all core issues and point to certain avenues to be pursued through negotiations."

Proving once more how difficult it will be to reach a final peace accord in the near future, Palestinian officials publicly disputed the claim that they would be satisfied by such a declaration at this time. Instead, they threatened again to boycott the announced Israeli-Palestinian peace conference currently planned to be held near Washington DC in either late November or early December.

Abbas and company basically demand a complete and final detailed settlement of all outstanding issues dividing the two sides before the conference gets underway, a position that Israel strongly rejects. "We won't go to the conference unless we reach an agreement beforehand with Israel on the final status issues and a clear timetable for implementation of any agreement between the two parties" said chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat on Oct 23.

The following day, Defense Minister Barak indicated that he was planning to implement the cabinet's earlier authorization to cut off fuel, electricity and other supplies to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Barak's reported decision came after a heavy barrage of Palestinian Kassam rockets were launched into Israeli communities the third week of October.

Olmert Can't Do It

Palestinian leaders are upset with Ehud Olmert's continuing refusal to commit to a final peace process timetable at the planned international parley. PLO leaders want the conference to focus on producing a fixed timetable that would spell out exactly how much Israeli-held disputed territory would be transferred to Palestinian control and when, along with precisely when full independent statehood would be granted.

Aware of how shaky his government coalition is, and how extremely unpopular a total surrender of most portions of Judea and Samaria is with a large majority of the Israeli electorate, PM Olmert insists that a more general peace conference goal is more appropriate, or at least realistic, at this stage. Instead of detailing a final accord, he wants both sides to recommit to fully implement the Road Map peace plan put forward by the White House in 2003. In its first phase, it calls for a total Israeli settlement expansion freeze and a complete halt to all Palestinian terror attacks, followed later on by negotiations for a final status peace accord. Just after her latest trip to Jerusalem, Rice confirmed that the American government fully supports Olmert's insistence that both sides pledge to carry out the first phase of the Road Map plan before final status issues are resolved.

Speaking before a Congressional committee in Washington late in the month, the Secretary of State warned the so-called "two-state solution" might collapse as an option if the current peace push does not bear fruit. She said the international conference to be held in Annapolis, Maryland before the end of this year "is needed to give hope to moderate Palestinian leaders" and provide them with "a horizon they can show to their people that indeed there is a possible two state solution." Rice added that the Bush administration will ask Congress to provide more than $400 million in financial aid to the Palestinian Authority headed by Abbas. She blamed Iran for fanning the flames of conflict in the region, especially by providing what she termed "troubling new support" for Hamas militants working to destroy Israel.

Revelations by Deputy Premier Haim Ramon that Olmert is prepared to cede control to the PA over mostly Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem continued to shake the Israeli political establishment during October, even though he also implied this could be part of a deal to cement Israeli control over three large settlement blocks located north and south of Israel's capital city. Opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu blasted the proposal on several occasions, saying any portion of Jerusalem abandoned to PA control would most likely become part of the capital of an Islamic fundamentalist Palestinian state that would threaten Israel's very existence. Olmert's office continued to deny that the Premier is effectively prepared to re-divide the holy city, which came under full Israeli control when the area was captured from Jordan in 1967.

Meanwhile the Palestinian daily Al Quds newspaper published in London reported in early October that Olmert had reached an understanding with Abbas to transfer control to Jordan over the most important real estate located in Jerusalem, if not in the entire world-the hallowed Temple Mount.

The paper said some 90,000 Arab residents of eastern Jerusalem would receive Jordanian citizenship as part of the deal. The story came as former Tourism Minister Benny Elon resurrected a plan that was once the staple of the nationalist Likud party, which Netanyahu now heads. He called for all Palestinians living in Jordan's former West Bank to be granted full Jordanian citizenship, with Israel gaining official sovereignty over those portions of the area where Israeli Jews reside today. The plan was immediately rejected by Israeli government leaders and was strongly denounced by the Palestinians.

Fear No Evil