Israel Update for October 2007

Nipped In The Bud

A Syrian nuclear reactor that could potentially help produce future atomic weapons to be used against the small Jewish state was obviously not something that the Israeli government was willing to suffer very long.

Still most Israeli security analysts believe that the daring IAF attack was also carried out soon after Israel confirmed that the building project had a nuclear connection in order to send a loud and clear warning to Syria's main regional ally, Iran: Your own openly declared nuclear program may be subjected to Israeli military action if it is not soon halted voluntarily.

Analysts noted that the air strike against Syria 's nascent reactor came just days before Iranian leader Mahmoud Amadinajed was scheduled to speak at United Nation's headquarters in New York, where he again defiantly declared that his rogue regime will not bow to growing international pressure and sanctions to halt its controversial "nuclear energy" program. Several weeks later, Iranian Brigadier General Mahmoud Chaharbaghi, who commands the country's elite Revolutionary Guard forces, claimed that his country" has 11,000 rockets and heavy cannons aimed at enemy forces" in the region, apparently meaning American and Israeli targets.

Israeli media reports said that PM Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak (who personally planned and oversaw the successful bombing operation) hope that the bold Israeli Air Force action will help persuade Shiite extremists ruling Tehran to shut down or at least freeze their nuclear program, which all Israeli officials strongly contend is largely designed for military purposes, and not to increase electricity supplies as Ahmadinejad and other Iranian officials contend.

Speculation that some sort of military strike against Iran's nuclear sites could be imminent grew after Barak warned the Israeli public in late October to prepare materials to seal off security rooms designed to withstand a potential chemical or biological weapons attack. Such "sealed rooms" were standard fare in Israel the first week of the war in Iraq in March 2003, and even more so during Saddam's Scud missile blitz in early 1991.

For the first time since the 2006 war, Lebanese gunners fired upon Israeli military jets flying over south Lebanon on October 24 without causing any damage. The action heightened concerns that some sort of Hizbullah attack against Israel could be pending, probably aided by Syria. The incident came just hours before the UN released a formal report stating that the Lebanese Shiite militia had not only fully rearmed following its war with Israel last year, but has actually "increased the capacity" it had at the beginning of that conflict. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon termed the report "deeply disconcerting." The UN openly stated that most of Hizbullah's new weapons flow is coming via Syria, financed largely by Iran.

Olmert Visits The Kremlin

Prime Minister Olmert made a lightning trip to Moscow in mid-October to hold urgent talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had just returned from a state visit to Iran. Senior Israeli leaders were upset when the increasingly autocratic Putin stated his opposition to slapping further UN economic sanctions on Tehran, contending that there is "no need" for them since there is no evidence that Iran possesses, or intends to produce, nuclear weapons. The Russian leader added that he would oppose any international military action to curb Iran's nuclear program, which Iranian leaders insist is strictly for energy purposes. Most Western leaders have stated directly or indirectly that they believe the Shiite state is mainly enriching uranium in order to produce nuclear bombs.

In his public remarks, Olmert did not directly blast the statements made by Putin while visiting Iran. However the PM did state that Russia could "help stabilize the Middle East by giving due weight to Israel's security interests." In other words, Russia 's actions of late-especially its military anti-tank and aircraft missile sales to Syria, and material support for Iran 's nuclear program-are helping to produce further instability in the region, which can only lead to more violence and conflict ahead.

An Israeli Defense Ministry official accompanying Olmert in Moscow told reporters that there has been a "significant retreat in Russian support for continuing diplomatic activity to impose sanctions on Iran via the UN Security Council." The international body is scheduled to discuss the issue again in November.

Meanwhile Israeli military analysts reported that the Olmert government is increasingly considering a unilateral military option for dealing with the existential threat that Iranian nuclear bombs would pose to the small state of Israel. Some opined that the air strike on Syria's nuclear reactor was partially meant to send a strong signal that similar action against Iran may be pending, even if all agree it would be a far more difficult undertaking than the September operation against the new Syrian reactor was-targeting several dozen positions instead of just one, all located much further away from Israel's borders.

Senior American officials said again during October that the world's current superpower would not allow Iran to possess such deadly weapons. During a press conference mid-month, President George Bush repeated earlier statements that everything possible would be done to halt the program diplomatically, but if that fails, "all options" would be on the table.

Vice President Dick Cheney echoed the Commander-in-Chief later in the month, saying in a speech before the Washington Institute for Near East Studies that the Iranian regime" continues to practice delay and deceit in an obvious effort to buy time." He said Iranian leaders were openly pursuing technology that would allow them to build nuclear weapons, adding that "our country and the entire international community cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice supported this position during the month, saying that the Shiite Iranian regime was "simply lying" when it maintains that its uranium enrichment program is for peaceful purposes only.