Israel Update for November 2008

In a new twist to an old story, the Israeli Defense Minister ordered all foreign journalists to be kept out of the Gaza Strip as long as the rocket attacks continue and the area is sealed off. The Jerusalem-based Foreign Press Association issued a stern protest statement on Nov 18 saying the action was "preventing the world media from being able to accurately report on events inside Gaza at this critical time."

The statement was featured the next day in a New York Times article, prompting the Israeli Foreign Ministry to call upon Barak to lift the ban. But an official inside his office noted that Israel is "only obligated to open the crossings for humanitarian reasons, and journalists entering Gaza does not meet that criteria."

Prime Minister Netanyahu

Opinion surveys published in various Israeli newspapers during November all forecast that former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is very likely to return to power early next year. Most polls projected that the Likud party he heads would receive around 27 Knesset seats in the upcoming February 10 election, more than doubling its current 12 seat total.

Still around the same number of seats will be captured by the currently ruling Kadima party, according to all the polls. However that would not necessarily mean that Kadima would remain in power. In fact, the polls show the opposite.

By the end of the month, Netanyahu's party was pulling slightly ahead of Kadima, led since mid September by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. But that was not the decisive factor in projecting the Likud's ultimate triumph.

All the polls show that several right wing and religious parties traditionally associated with the Likud will together capture at least 64 seats in the upcoming vote-to only 56 for Kadima and its leftwing allies. Therefore even if Livni's centrist party were to end up with one or two more seats than the Likud, a majority of Knesset members will probably tell President Shimon Peres that they prefer Netanyahu as the next premier, meaning that the Kadima party-affiliated ceremonial head of state would be forced to give Netanyahu-who defeated him in the 1996 national election-the first crack at forming a coalition government.

Another major factor adds credence to the growing evidence that the Likud leader, who served as prime minister from mid 1996 until mid-1999, will once again sit in the premier's chair. Polls show that at least 10 of the seats projected to go to the left will be won by several Arab political parties that are highly unlikely to actually be asked to join a Kadima-led government. Therefore such a government would be impossible to form unless at least one of the rightwing or religious parties backed it-which is also highly unlikely if Netanyahu's Likud captures at least 25 seats, as expected.

Analysts say that Netanyahu's growing fortunes have been substantially aided by his ability during the month to recruit several former Likud party lights to his Knesset party list. The most prominent was former Justice Minister Dan Meridor, who along with Netanyahu was dubbed in the 1980's as a "prince" of the Likud party, then headed by the late Menachem Begin. Another recruit during November was actually Begin's son, Benny, who was also considered a "prince" in those days. He had completely left the political world in 1999, several years after his father's passing, to return to his earlier career as a scientist. Another prominent name added to Netanyahu's list was former Armed Forces Chief Moshe Ya'alon, who was dismissed by Ariel Sharon in 2005 after publicly objecting to the pending Gaza Strip pullout.

Most shocking in November's opinion polls was the projection that the once mighty Labor party, headed by Barak, is likely to win less seats than four other parties-Likud, Kadima, the Orthodox Shas party, and the rightwing Yisrael Beiteinu party headed by Russian immigrant Avigdor Lieberman. Some analysts said such a result would effectively spell the end of the party that dominated the political scene during Israel's first three decades.

Nuclear Nightmares

The New York Times reported on November 20 that Iran has now succeeded in producing "approximately enough" nuclear weapons grade material to assemble its first nuclear bomb. The article quoted several experts who had carefully analyzed the data contained in the latest report on Iran issued by the UN's Atomic Energy Agency. A senior UN official was quoted expressing frustration over Iran's continuing attempts to prevent the international body from adequately monitoring the rogue nation's nuclear program.

The chilling report said Iran's radical Shiite regime has produced at least 630 kilograms of low enriched uranium, which is suitable for nuclear fuel. That amount is "enough to produce a single nuclear warhead," according to the experts cited in the article, giving it around the destructive blast power of the American atomic bomb that devastated Nagasaki Japan in August 1945.

However the experts opined that Iranian scientists and engineers would still need "more technological know how" in order to successfully purify the fuel to the point that it could actually be used in such a warhead-a contention that gave little comfort to Israeli officials who believe Iran's goal is to threaten to wipe out millions of Israeli citizens with just such a powerful bomb in the not too distant future. Meanwhile Israel's air force chief said during November that his highly trained pilots are "ready to deal with the Iranian threat" if ordered to do so.

The UN nuclear monitoring agency also reported in November that there was substantial evidence that Syria had been secretly building a nuclear facility that was destroyed by Israeli jets-aided by the United States-in September 2007. The report said the bombed complex "bore multiple features resembling those of a nuclear reactor," adding that UN inspectors had found "a significant number of uranium traces" at the site.

The report added that Syria had failed to cooperate with UN attempts to gather more information at the destroyed complex. American diplomat Gregory Schulte, who is assigned to the UN monitoring group, said the report "reinforces the assessment of my government that Syria was secretly building a nuclear reactor in its eastern desert and thereby violating its IAEA safeguard obligations."

As thousands of Israeli citizens came under renewed Palestinian rocket fire during the month, while everyone warily anticipated the possibility of far more powerful missile strikes from Lebanon, Syria and Iran in the future, it is surely a good time to humbly petition Israel's God for His continuing mercy and protection: "For if you remain silent, I will be like those who have gone down to the pit. Hear my cry for mercy as I call to you for help, as I lift up my hands toward your Most Holy Place" (Psalm 28:1-2).