Israel Update for November 2008

David Dolan

The Egyptian-mediated ceasefire between Israel and the radical Hamas movement came close to collapse during November as a torrent of Palestinian rockets once again came crashing down on Israeli civilian centers near the Gaza Strip. The city of Ashkelon was struck several times, along with many other locations, prompting the Israeli government to seal off the small coastal zone. Meanwhile a respected Middle East Arab leader warned that an allegedly pending major Israeli military operation into the crowded Gaza Strip could spark serious instability in the troubled region.

As always in recent years, Israeli officials also kept a wary eye on Iran as the New York Times reported that the country was now technically able to produce a nuclear weapon. This came as United Nations officials announced that trace amount of radiation were discovered at the site of a Syrian complex bombed by Israeli air force jets in September last year.

In the north, military tensions remained high between Israeli army forces and the Lebanese Shiite Hizbullah militia amid more warlike words from the extremist group's clerical leaders. Hundreds of Hizbullah forces reportedly staged provocative military exercises near the border with Israel in late November in violation of the UN ceasefire resolution which ended the group's 2006 conflict with Israel.

In the wake of the fresh Palestinian rocket attacks and threats of the same from Iran, Syria and Hizbullah-but on a far more dangerous scale-Israel's political scene was alive with activity as the campaign began for a new national parliamentary vote, scheduled for February 10, 2009. Opinion surveys continued to predict that the conservative Likud party will emerge victorious in the contest, along with its traditional right wing and religious allies.

Rockets Return To Southern Israel

The six month truce that was enacted last June 19 between Israel and Hamas prematurely ran out of steam during November as dozens of Palestinian rockets rained down on Israeli communities. Over 150 rockets and mortar shells were fired at Israeli cities and towns near the Gaza Strip over a two week period. This came as Israeli military forces launched several limited counterstrikes in an effort to halt the fresh barrage. At least 17 Hamas fighters were killed in the action, while no Israeli casualties were reported.

The latest round of Palestinian assaults began after IDF forces went into action early in the month when a tunnel was discovered that officials believed was designed to facilitate the imminent kidnapping of Israeli soldiers stationed near the border fence. It was just such an abduction in June 2006-of soldier Gilad Shalit-which set off months of severe clashes between IDF military personnel and Palestinian militia fighters. Army sources said the uncovered tunnel was destroyed while in the final stages of being clandestinely constructed by Hamas workers.

Palestinian rocket attacks began within hours of the November 4 Israeli action, with Hamas and Islamic Jihad spokesmen claiming that Israel had violated the half year military time out, giving them legitimate grounds to respond. However Israeli officials pointed out that they had always maintained the right to counter any serious violations of the six month ceasefire, negotiated indirectly by Egyptian officials. Although the truce had been set to expire in December anyway, Israeli leaders had quietly hoped that it could be extended, at least until after the country holds fresh parliamentary elections next February. The prospects for that taking place now seem more remote.

Ready For War?

Hamas issued a bombastic statement on November 18 claiming that the group, with an estimated 20,000 trained fighters, is "fully prepared for a confrontation with the Zionist enemy." It averred that armed Islamic militiamen would "turn the ceasefire tables on the heads of the Zionists" if the IDF undertakes a major ground operation in the Gaza Strip. The statement also warned that any full IDF resumption of pre-ceasefire targeted killings of Hamas terror squads, as openly advocated by some Israeli military officers, would be met with "fierce retaliation" by Hamas forces.

Despite the warlike statements, former Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, who is the most senior Hamas political leader residing in the Gaza Strip, claimed several days later that the group is interested in maintaining its ceasefire with Israel, at least for now. Speaking during a Friday Muslim prayer service in Gaza City, he claimed to have "met with our armed factions over the past two days, and they stated their position clearly, that they are committed to calm as long as the Zionists abide by it."

However just hours before Haniyeh spoke, mortar shells were fired at an Israeli army patrol near the sealed Kissufim border crossing-thankfully causing no casualties. And within minutes of the end of his public speech, yet another Palestinian Kassam rocket came crashing down, this time striking inside an industrial zone located on the southern outskirts of Ashkelon. Hamas leaders insisted it was fired by a small terrorist group not under Hamas control. But an Israeli government spokesman pointed out that Hamas has made itself responsible for all attacks originating in the territory after seizing the entire Gaza Strip from PA security forces during a violent coup in June 2007.

Speaking Out

The latest round of Palestinian rocket attacks sparked protests from many Israeli opposition politicians who maintained that the caretaker Olmert government was doing precious little to halt the barrage. Likud party leader Binyamin Netanyahu-widely expected to take over the premier's chair early next year-was critical of both Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who he said were not taking strong enough action to halt the attacks. The Israeli public seemed to agree, with both Barak's Labor party and Olmert's Kadima slipping further behind the Likud party in all election opinion polls.