Israel Update for April 2012

Just before the nuclear talks began in Turkey, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared once again that his regime would not alter its nuclear development programme, period. Marking the Islamic Republic's "Nuclear Technology Day," he said his government would never give in to outside pressure to end its renegade nuclear programme. Iranian Atomic Energy Agency chief Fereydoon Abbasi Davani later echoed this defiant stand, saying Iranian leaders utterly reject the two key demands issued by the United States, the European Union, Israel and other parties-to immediately shut down the underground uranium enrichment facility near Qom, and to stop enriching uranium to 20 percent. In announcing the rejection, he maintained that the demands are "irrational," adding that "If they do not threaten us and guarantee that no aggression will occur, then there would be no need for countries to build facilities underground. They should change their behavior and language." Of course, he did not mention that Israel is only "threatening" to attack such facilities because Iranian leaders constantly vow to wipe out the world's only Jewish-ruled state, thus "finishing what Hitler started" as the late Iranian strongman Ayatollah Khomeini succinctly put it back in 1991.

Meanwhile the US government slapped additional economic sanctions on Iran during April as the talks in Turkey got underway. The US Treasury announced that two more Iranian companies involved in weapons production had been placed on the banned for business list. A Nigerian shipping company that the Treasury said has been funneling Iranian weapons to what the US termed "terrorist groups" involved in conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and other places around the world was also placed on the black list, as were three leaders of the "Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force" who were also said to be heavily involved in the illicit weapons trade. Press reports said Iran had responded by halting oil sales to several European countries, but Iranian leaders later denied that this action was being taken. Japan announced it would sharply curtail its imports of Iranian crude by the end of April, while Switzerland banned any business dealings with 11 Iranian companies.

Plan Of Action

Two potentially crucial news items appeared in the American and Israeli media during April that point to what the world may expect to see if Israeli military forces are ordered by the Netanyahu government to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming weeks or months. The usually reliable American Foreign Policy magazine reported that the Muslim country of Azerbaijan has granted Israel permission to use its air force bases as launching pads for a strike on nearby Iran. The small country, known for its moderate version of Islam and progressive political policies, is located due north of Iran. It has had running disputes with Tehran over oil rights, pipeline locations and other issues. Israeli warplanes would be able to operate without mid-air refueling if they were flying out of bases in the Muslim country.

Israeli officials would not publicly comment on the magazine report, but they were said to be upset that news of their reported alliance with Azerbaijan-which most analysts said was undoubtedly accurate-had been leaked by someone with knowledge of the accord. However some said the news might have come from a junior Israeli pilot who had been to the country to inspect its air force bases and then shared that information with family or friends. More likely is the possibility that one of the few senior American officials who had been clued in to the secret information had leaked the report to the magazine in an attempt to scuttle the deal. Foreign Policy also reported that the Obama administration is not at all happy about the reported deal between Israel and Azerbaijan, but can do little if anything to stop it.

Analysts said there are two obvious major advantages to the potential use of air bases in Azerbaijan if Israel lashes out at Iran's nuclear production sites. The first is the relative closeness of the bases in relation to Israel's own air bases, which are located nearly a thousand miles west of some of the main Iranian targets near Tehran. The second is the apparent fact that Israel could launch its operation without the prior knowledge or approval of the United States and other allies, even though this would not be PM Netanyahu's first choice of action. However to maintain the element of tactical surprise, analysts say Israeli leaders might only notify the occupant of the White House, 10 Downing Street and other world leaders that an attack was pending upon Iran after IAF jets were actually nearing their targets. This would at least give President Obama a few minutes to notify his military commanders that an Israeli strike was imminent. He would also be expected to place all US forces serving in the volatile Middle East on full war alert, giving them a chance to take cover in anticipation of possible revenge strikes upon them-an insidious action that Iran's Shiite fundamentalist leaders have vowed to take even if Israel acts alone.

Another media report, this time from Israel's Channel Ten television network, spelled out the probable details of an expected war if the IAF strikes at Iran's nuclear facilities. The network's news department said it had obtained the secret minutes of a recent meeting of the government's inner "security cabinet" headed up by Prime Minister Netanyahu. The report said that military leaders are projecting an intense war lasting up to three weeks, which would touch most of Israel's borders. Ground fighting would probably take place with Lebanon and Syria, and some sporadic clashes might also take place along the borders with Jordan and Egypt, mainly with irregular Muslim fighters financed by Iran.

However the main feature of the projected war is expected to be massive rocket and missile bombardments of Israeli civilian centres, mainly from the heavily armed Hizbullah militia operating out of southern Lebanon but also from Iran's other local allies Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip. The report said missile assaults would probably also be launched from Syria and Iran, which has threatened to attack Israel's nuclear reactor at Dimona near Beersheva, and also Tel Aviv.

The Channel Ten report said that officials anticipate a relatively low casualty rate during such an intense showdown, saying that less than 300 people are expected to be killed in such a conflict. An unnamed civil defense official told the network that things should remain "manageable if everyone does their part." However some military analysts scoffed at this low casualty projection, saying that thousands of soldiers and civilians would probably perish in such ground action coupled with a massive missile blitz. They noted that wars always have a powerful dynamic of their own, and predicting the final outcome in advance is always a precarious guess at best.

Another expected reaction to any Israeli or Western military action against Iran is the launching of Iranian terrorist strikes against Jewish targets around the region and probably around the world. The UK-based Sky News cable news network reported it had obtained evidence that the "Quds Force" (Quds is the Islamic name for Jerusalem), an elite terrorist unit under the control of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, has plans to carry out many terrorist attacks in Turkey and several other countries either before, during or after any IAF operation. The network quoted an unnamed intelligence source who said that "Unit 400 of the Quds Force has been developing an operating procedure over the past few months for carrying out an attack in Turkey against various targets, some of them Israeli and Jewish. It is our firm assessment that these procedures are in a very advanced stage, and that the intention is to act on the plans very soon."

Island Wrestling

A new crisis erupted during April when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited a small island in the Persian Gulf called Abu Musa. It is claimed by both Iran and by the United Arab Emirates. Two smaller nearby islands are also claimed by both countries. Gulf Arab leaders termed the short visit "an aggressive and war mongering act" by the Iranian President, who reportedly won the last Iranian presidential contest with more votes than there are registered voters in his Shiite country.

The dramatic visit sparked off an emergency meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council based in Doha, the capital of Qatar. After the meeting, a statement was issued in the name of the council members, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. The tough statement warned that, "Any aggression against the United Arab Emirates will be considered aggression against all GCC member states." It was the first time the Sunni Muslim Arab countries had warned of possible military action involving themselves against Shiite Iran. Israeli analysts called it another indication that the Sunni Muslim world would quietly back any IAF action to halt Iran's nuclear weapons programme, which is threatening all regional countries and the entire world, not just the tiny Jewish State.

In typical fashion Ahmadinejad arrogantly denounced the joint statement. Speaking at an elaborate military parade marking Iran's annual "National Army Day," he vowed that "Our armed forces and the army will inflict heavy regret and shame" upon anyone who would dare to defy his country's claims to the three islands. He added that Iranian leaders "prefer cooperation to confrontation," but analysts noted that he has expressed no interest in discussing the conflicting territorial claims with his Arab neighbors across the strategic Gulf.

Meanwhile Prince Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the late Iranian leader, Shah Reza Pahlavi, told Israel's Channel 10 that a military operation against his country's nuclear targets would actually aid the regime. Speaking in English, he said, "The best thing you can do for the regime is to tell it that 'we are going to attack you'. You will be giving (overall Iranian leader Ayatollah) Khamenei and all his clique, when they have no answers anymore to the country's ills, the greatest gift of all by doing that. That is just crazy. That just doesn't make sense. The best option is to utilize the best army in the world in place ready to strike, which is the Iranian people themselves." In response to the comments, several prominent Israeli military analysts said PM Netanyahu would like to see nothing more than the people of Iran rise up against their dictatorial government, as is occurring in Syria. However they noted that earlier attempts at revolt had been quickly crushed by the vicious Revolutionary Guards, who demonstrated their willingness to employ the most ugly violence possible to defend their Shiite leaders.

As Israel's decades-long struggle with Iran is seemingly coming to a climax, it is important to remember that Israel's sovereign Lord remains in overall control of this world and universe. He will save His chosen people, as He has promised many times over the centuries through His anointed prophets: "Surely in the Lord our God is the salvation of Israel" (Jeremiah 3:23).