Israel Update for April 2012

David Dolan

The conflict between Israel and Iran continued to dominate the headlines in the Jewish State during April. The main focus was on the meeting mid-month in Turkey between top diplomats from the P-5 nuclear powers and Germany, who met with several of Iran's defiant Shiite Muslim leaders. The one-day talks termed "successful" by some of the Western participants despite the fact that little of substance was accomplished came as further economic and political sanctions were imposed upon the rogue country. Israeli officials made clear they view the talks as just another path for the Iranian clerical regime to continue its nuclear weapons development programme while avoiding possible military action from NATO forces and/or Israeli defense forces. However the officials added that they had not promised the P-5 leaders that Israel would not attack Iranian nuclear facilities as long as the talks continue, with the next session set for late May.

Meanwhile tensions heated up significantly between Iran and its nearby Arab neighbors after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinajad visited an island in the Gulf claimed by both Iran and by the United Arab Emirates. The visit prompted Gulf leaders to issue a formal warning to Iran not to interfere in the affairs of its Arab neighbors. This was quickly followed by new verbal threats of possible aggression from the feisty President. Just before this latest altercation, American media outlets stated that Israel has made an important military pact with a Muslim country located due north of Iran. At the same time, an Israeli television channel reported that Israeli leaders believe a war with Iran and its allies would last around three weeks, but would not result in severe Israeli casualties.

Israeli officials continued to watch the violence in Syria with intense concern during April, especially after a UN-brokered ceasefire failed to take hold mid month. The UN said over 11,000 people have perished in the growing conflict during the past year, with more deaths occurring every day. Israel's top military commander made an unannounced visit to inspect two IDF outposts located on the Golan Heights near the tense border with Syria as tens of thousands of displaced Syrian refugees continued to pour into Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan.

The unstable situation in Egypt also continued to be in focus during the month as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the Sinai border to check on the new security fence going up there. The interim Egyptian military government sent police reinforcements into the Sinai during April with the prior approval of the PM. The disqualification of a former senior official in the Mubarak regime to run in the presidential elections scheduled for late next month, along with the candidate that was to be fielded by the Muslim Brotherhood movement, produced more political chaos in the Arab world's largest and most influential country. The new Muslim Brotherhood candidate made clear he will make the Palestinian issue his top priority if he wins the election.

Two stunts planned by the Palestinians for late March and mid April basically fizzled - one the staging of planned huge rallies along Israel's northern, southern and eastern borders and in areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority, and the second a "fly in" of pro-Palestinian activists who had hoped to "take over" Israel's Ben Gurion airport. This came as the Quartet peace partners met in Washington DC to discuss their recent attempts to re-start the stalled peace process. A planned meeting between Netanyahu and the PA Prime Minister did not take place in the end, leading Israeli analysts to say that the PA is apparently not at all interested in getting any serious negotiations going at this time.

The Israeli public received some good economic news during the month. The Netanyahu cabinet approved a large trade deal with the world's largest country, China, including the expansion of joint research projects in the fields of hi tech, medicine and other areas. This came as talks continued between the two countries to set up a free trade zone between them, which Israel currently enjoys with the United States and several other trading partners. Another slice of good economic news was the government announcement that 752,000 visitors had arrived in the Jewish State during the first quarter of 2012, an all-time record that is two per cent higher than the corresponding first quarter of 2011. As is usually the case, officials said the majority of tourists were Christian pilgrims who came to the region despite the upheaval gripping many portions of the Middle East.

Talk To Me

Just hours after American President Barack Obama met with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in early March, US government officials announced that Iranian leaders had agreed to attend a new round of international talks aimed at halting the Islamic regime's threatening nuclear development programme. Israeli officials, along with many others around the world, believe the programme is ultimately aimed at building deadly nuclear warheads that could greatly aid the Shiite country in its frequently declared goal of wiping Israel off of the regional map.

The world's five leading nuclear powers-the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China-were joined by Germany in attending the new round of talks, held in Istanbul Turkey with the participation of several Iranian diplomats. Earlier negotiations had failed to persuade the Iranian regime to curb its nuclear activities, and Israeli leaders said they anticipated the same outcome now.

When Israeli officials expressed public exasperation over the fact that Iran was being given more time to work on its nuclear programme in exchange for merely attending the talks, which will only be resumed on May 23 in, of all places, the violence-torn city of Baghdad, President Obama defended the action. He told reporters in Washington that international pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear programme would continue apace, despite the fact that occasional talks are taking place. "We're going to keep on seeing if we make progress," said the American leader, adding that "Now, the clock is ticking, and I've been very clear to Iran and to our negotiating partners that we're not going to have these talks just drag out in a stalling process." Obama also said the US and its partners "haven't given anything away" by returning to the negotiating table. He maintained that "We still have a window in which to resolve this conflict diplomatically." However he also warned Tehran that "The window is closing and Iran needs to take advantage of it."

After attending the Istanbul meeting, American Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also told reporters the US government will keep up pressure on Iran despite the talks. "I believe in action for action, but I think in this case the burden of action falls on the Iranians to demonstrate their seriousness, and we are going to keep the sanctions in place and the pressure on Iran as they consider what they'll bring to the table in Baghdad, and we'll respond accordingly," she said. On the question of the talks acting as a cover for further Iranian nuclear activity, the senior US diplomat promised to "take this one step at a time," adding that "any process would have to have reciprocal expectations and actions and there has to be evidence by Iran that they would be seriously moving toward removing a lot of their nuclear ambiguity that exists now, that they would be much more open and transparent, and that they would take steps to respond to the UN Security Council resolutions and to the international community's concerns."

Freebie

Although most participants expressed contentment with the short Istanbul parlay, Israeli officials were especially disturbed when it was announced that there would be another five week gap until the next round of talks takes place in Iraq. Reacting to the international gathering, PM Netanyahu said, "My initial impression is that Iran has been given a freebie. It's got five weeks to continue enrichment without any limitation, any inhibition." He noted it is a very critical period of time since Iran continues to move its uranium enrichment centrifuges to a deep underground bunker at Fordow, close to the Iranian holy city of Qom, and may now have time to successfully complete the process before the end of next month. "I think Iran should take immediate steps to stop all enrichment, take out all enrichment material, and dismantle the nuclear facility near Qom," the Israeli Premier told reporters at the end of the weeklong Jewish festival of Passover.

In an interview with CNN, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak echoed the Premier, telling reporters in Jerusalem that the only concrete result from the talks between Iran and the international nuclear powers and Germany was that Iran had "gained five additional weeks to bring its efforts at deploying atomic weapons closer to reality." However Barak had earlier made clear that the Israeli coalition government had given absolutely no assurances to the United States or anyone else that it would refrain from taking any military action deemed essential while the world powers negotiate with Iran. The Defense Minister noted that once the radical Shiite regime is finished moving its uranium enrichment facilities underground, it will be nearly impossible to successfully destroy them, thus giving Israel a very good reason to attack above-ground targets in the coming weeks even if this might set off a major war and an international firestorm.