Israel Update for February 2012

The Washington Post article went on to state that the postponement in January of a major joint US-Israeli anti-missile defense exercise was probably the result of the Obama administration's conclusion that an Israeli military strike was likely to occur during the first half of this year. The Defense Secretary and the Pentagon declined to comment on the report. It came soon after the EU joined the United States in slapping additional economic sanctions upon the Iranian clerical regime that has ruled the Shiite Muslim country since 1979, including a total suspension of EU oil imports by June. The EU has been Iran's second biggest customer after China. Tehran later retaliated by immediately banning oil sales to Britain and France.

As he was preparing to meet with President Barack Obama in the oval office on February 21st, Panetta's spokesman, George Little, released a statement designed to "clarify" the earlier comments attributed to his boss. "The Defense Secretary has said that Iran must not be able to possess nuclear weapons, and that the international community must continue to put diplomatic and economic pressure on the Iranian regime not to make the decision to develop them." The spokesman then insisted that "sanctions are working," adding Panetta has "talked about red lines the Iranians can't cross, including nuclear weapons and closing the Strait of Hormuz. And on Israel, he's echoed what the President said, that we believe Israel hasn't made a decision whether or not to strike Iran." Later in the month, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said an Israeli military attack upon Iranian nuclear targets would be "catastrophic for the region and for the whole system of international relations." Israeli officials dismissed the comment, saying the Kremlin has no moral ground to speak on the topic since it is actively supporting the brutal Syrian regime's deadly assaults upon its own citizens.

This Time Next Year

The new American Defense Secretary had earlier been quoted as stating that Iran could potentially produce a nuclear warhead in just one year's time. This closely echoed comments made by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, delivered while visiting Brussels in mid January. In a rare public briefing, the head of Israeli military intelligence, Major General Aviv Kochavi, revealed Iran could produce what he termed "a crude nuclear device" within one year of making a decision to do so. Speaking at an international security conference held annually north of Tel Aviv, the career military officer went on to state that "Iranian scientists have already managed to enrich enough radioactive material to successfully produce not just one, but four nuclear bombs." The IDF security chief added ominously that "Iran is very actively pursuing its efforts to develop its nuclear capacities, and we have evidence they're seeking nuclear weapons." The United Nations Atomic Energy Agency released a report last November confirming for the first time that evidence it gathered strongly suggests that the rogue Shiite regime is indeed actively pursuing a nuclear weapons programme.

Speaking at the security conference the following day, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon stated that Israel possesses significant evidence that Iran has succeeded, with North Korean help, in producing long-range ballistic missiles capable of traversing the north pole in order to strike targets in North America. Ya'alon - relieved of his earlier position as IDF Chief of Staff by PM Ariel Sharon in 2005 after he publicly questioned the then-pending Israeli military and civilian pullout from the Gaza Strip - indicated he shared this unsettling information with senior American officials during a late January visit to Washington, where Prime Minister Netanyahu is heading in early March. Seeming to confirm the statements attributed to Leon Panetta that Israel may launch a military assault on Iran's nuclear facilities very soon, Ya'alon warned that, "The Israeli government will stop Iran one way or another." Reacting to all the comments concerning a possible pending IDF military strike against Iran's threatening nuclear programme, President Obama said his administration is "going to be sure we work in lockstep as we proceed to try to solve this problem - hopefully diplomatically." Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak also spoke again during February of his hope that economic sanctions coupled with diplomatic moves might persuade Iran's militant leaders to back away from their nuclear production programme. However he also pointed out the numerous indications that this path will most likely fail.

Late in the month, former Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain led a congressional delegation in a visit to Jerusalem. After meeting with senior Israeli leaders, he said the Obama administration should share Israel's "correct assessment" of the dire threat posed by Iran's nuclear programme. McCain also disputed a statement issued by the Pentagon in late February that the radical Iranian clerical regime is "fundamentally rational" and would therefore probably not deploy nuclear weapons against Israel. He said "any regime with an abiding concern for its own security, self-interest and self-preservation would not engage in such deeply provocative conduct," adding "There is no doubt that Iran has so far been undeterred on the path of acquiring nuclear weapons."

Destroy The "Zionist Tumor"

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, delivered an abrasive two-hour speech the first weekend of February, calling Israel a "cancerous tumor" that must be uprooted from the region. He repeated his threatening comments in a similar speech later in the month. Speaking at a Friday mosque service in Tehran, broadcast live around the country and via the Hizbullah satellite network throughout the Middle East, the clerical leader said "the Zionist regime is a cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut." He vowed to pursue what he called "nuclear energy development" while boasting that any military attack upon Iranian nuclear sites would "only make Iran stronger." The hostile remarks about Israel were delivered in fluent Arabic, which analysts said reflected Khameini's apparent desire to speak directly to the Arab world. He also employed Arabic while commenting on the over year long political upheaval that has gripped much of the Arab world, hailing the militant Islamic electoral victories in Tunisia and Egypt. He said the fundamentalist triumphs will help to "weaken and isolate" Israel, adding that they reflected what he termed the "utter failure of American foreign policy based on anti-Islamic propaganda."

For the first time ever, the overall Iranian leader confirmed that his regime has been assisting the radical Lebanese Shiite militia - in fact it helped establish the armed force in the early 1980s and has been funding, arming, training and even partially commanding it on the ground ever since. Khameini also affirmed what the Israeli government has long known: that his country has been arming and training the Sunni Palestinian Hamas militia, which violently seized control over the Gaza Strip in 2007. "We have intervened in anti-Israel matters, and that brought victory in the 33-day war by Hizbullah against Israel in 2006, and in the 22-day war between Hamas and the Zionist state in Gaza," which began after heavy Hamas shelling of nearby Israeli civilian centres in 2008. Khameini added threateningly that "From now on, in any place, if any nation or any group confronts the Zionist regime, we will endorse and we will help. We have no fear expressing this out loud."

Later in the month, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards held another major military exercise dubbed Sarollah, an Arabic word meaning "Allah's vengeance." A spokesman for the group claimed the large-scale drills were designed to protect the entire Gulf from "foreign intervention," ignoring the fact that all Gulf Sunni Arab states fear Shiite Iran and have been urging the United States to take action against the country's threatening nuclear weapons programme. The exercises began the same day as a team of experts from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency arrived in Teheran for talks with Iranian officials. The team later left in failure, reporting no progress in attempts to uncover the deeper dimensions of the secretive Iranian programme. In particular, inspectors were not allowed to visit a building in an Iranian nuclear compound that they suspect houses facilities to test the effects of nuclear explosions.

With tensions mounting in the region, Israeli media reports said American military personnel were gathering in significant numbers in the strategic area. Unusual airlifts were reported across the Sinai Peninsula and southern Israel, heading further east to the Gulf region. They apparently emanated from American military bases in Europe. This came as military forces from six nations, including the United States, Britain and France, held joint exercises to practice an attack on an unnamed "enemy mechanized division" after it supposedly invaded a neighboring country. Including a US nuclear aircraft carrier and its support ships, plus the French Charles de Gaulle carrier, defense experts termed it the largest amphibious exercise held by such joint forces in over one decade. Many added that it was designed to reassure nervous Gulf Sunni-ruled Arab countries, including oil rich Saudi Arabia, that the West is remaining vigilant in the face of growing threats from Shiite Iran.

Situation Deteriorates In Syria

Heavy street fighting broke out in mid-February in the Syrian capital city, Damascus, between supporters and opponents of the brutal Assad family regime that has ruled the Arab country since the 1960s. To the north, the regime's remaining loyal forces were pounding the city of Homs - about the same size as the US city of Philadelphia - with massive artillery bombardments that left hundreds of people dead or wounded, including two prominent Western journalists. Clashes took place in many other parts of the torn county as the minority Alawite regime desperately attempted to cling to power in the face of growing international calls for Assad to immediately step down.

The fighting intensified only hours after both Russia and China used their vetoes to block a UN Security Council resolution demanding Assad's quick ouster. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, later told the General Assembly that Assad's forces had been "emboldened" by the Security Council's failure to end the escalating violence. She said the regime was deliberately attacking Syrian civilians, especially in the city of Homs. "The failure of the Security Council to agree on firm collective action appears to have emboldened the Syrian government to launch an all-out assault in an effort to crush dissent with overwhelming force," Pillay said, adding she was "particularly appalled by the ongoing onslaught on Homs. According to credible accounts, the Syrian army has shelled densely populated neighborhoods of Homs in what appears to be an indiscriminate attack on civilian areas."