Israel Update for July 2008

The Israeli public was especially shocked and sickened when the vicious murderer-freed in exchange for two decomposed bodies-was enthusiastically welcomed as a war hero in Beirut. Greeting him warmly on the afternoon of July 16th at a televised state ceremony were new Lebanese President Michel Suleiman, Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and other high ranking government officials. Many Muslim clerics attended the ceremony, along with a few Christian ones, which particularly irked some Israelis. Many were also upset that the "Hizbullah victory" was highly praised by Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and openly celebrated in many Palestinian cities and towns.

Hassan Nasrallah made his first public appearance since the war ended on August 14, 2006 at a rally in south Beirut later the same day. With a beaming Kuntar standing next to him, the Muslim cleric crowed over his vile group's "latest triumph" over Israel. He spoke to cheering crowds comprised mostly of Shiite Lebanese citizens, claiming his ability to secure the release of Kuntar and his death dealing comrades was a sign that Hizbullah was the instrument that Allah would use to annihilate the hated Israel. He pledged to "free the rest of our lands" from Israeli control, which some saw as a reference to other portions of disputed territory along the international border, while others thought he was actually referring to Islam's claim over the entire biblical Holy Land.

An opinion survey taken in a number of Arab countries in recent months, and coincidently released the same day as the swap took place, showed that the turbaned Nasrallah is now the most popular regional Arab political figure, with 26% of all respondents choosing him ahead of runner-up Syrian dictator Hafez Assad, picked by 16%. Another 10% named Iran's Israel-bashing President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as their favorite leader. One Israeli Middle East analyst said the poll, conducted by the Washington DC-based Brookings Institute, was further proof that the Arab world in general reveres strong dictators and thugs over moderate West-leaning leaders.

Not to be outdone by his Lebanese Shiite surrogate, Iran's senior Islamic clerical leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed just hours after the exchange took place to "cut off the arm" of anyone who would dare attack his country's nuclear program, mentioning in particular the "Zionist regime" and the US government led by George W. Bush. He further threatened that Bush would be personally "punished even after his term in office is finished" if he orders an American military strike or backs an Israeli one.

The fiery televised speech came just days before Iran rebuffed fresh attempts by European and American leaders, backed by Russia and China, to persuade the Shiite regime to stop its uranium enrichment program-a key component in producing nuclear weapons. The international community gave Iran until early August to halt its program or face additional economic sanctions. Israel has come under stepped up verbal threats from Tehran in recent weeks after a large IDF military exercise was held in June that many Israeli and foreign military analysts said was clearly a dress rehearsal for a possible air force attack upon Iran's extensive nuclear facilities.

Olmert Under Fire

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert defended his government's controversial decision to set free Kuntar and four other living terrorists for what he had previously warned would likely be just the remains of the two missing soldiers. He noted that Israel's official policy has always been to leave none of its captured or slain solders in enemy hands if at all possible. Indeed, many said it was a badge of honor that Israel would pay such a steep price in order to bring closure to the Regev and Goldwasser families and friends, who had endured much anguish and pain over the past two years. Olmert's position was supported by President Shimon Peres, who met with Smadar Haran and others involved in the 1979 Nahariya terror attack, telling them that while "We do not want murderers to go free, we have a moral obligation to bring home soldiers whom we send to defend their country."

Olmert admitted that an 80 page Hizbullah report on missing Israeli airman Ron Arad, handed to Israeli officials as part of the exchange, was "not satisfactory." Other Kadima party cabinet ministers echoed this, with Transportation Minister Saul Mofaz, who was a military commander serving in Lebanon when the pilot was shot down there in 1988, insisting that "Nasrallah knows more about Ron than he is willing to divulge."

The embattled Premier said the contested prisoner release would also make it easier for his government to focus attention on securing freedom for Gilad Shalit, kidnapped by Palestinian Hamas terrorists in June 2006 inside the Israeli border with the Gaza Strip. But critics suggested that the massively lopsided exchange would only serve to increase Hamas demands in indirect Egyptian-sponsored negotiations to secure Shalit's freedom. Some opined that it might even prompt his Palestinian captors to kill the abducted young soldier, who holds duo French and Israeli citizenship, since they would assume that doing so would not significantly lessen their chances of securing a similarly one sided deal.

Olmert is also coming under criticism for agreeing to a ceasefire with Hamas in June, which has only been partially kept by the Palestinians. Officials say the group has used the timeout to step up weapons smuggling into the coastal zone. Meanwhile peace talks with the Palestinian Authority have stalled, prompting one PLO official, Salah Rafat, to warn in late July that the Palestinians might unilaterally declare statehood in the coming months and sever all ties with Israel.

Imminent Hizbullah Attack?

A senior Israeli army officer warned the cabinet on July 22 that Hizbullah is likely to soon launch another major terrorist assault along the border, or possibly fresh missile strikes, in order to "demonstrate that its fight against Israel is not over." IDF Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin added that the extremist Shiite group is receiving large arms shipments from Syria and Iran in preparation for another round of fighting, and is busy reinforcing its positions in south Lebanon.

Yadlin added ominously that several regional countries are also rapidly building up military forces in anticipation of a possible showdown with Israel later this summer. He was thought to be referring to both Iran and Syria, despite the fact that Turkish-mediated indirect peace talks are continuing between Israel and the Syrian regime. Syrian President Hafez Assad and PM Olmert actually passed close by each other during a mid-July conference in Paris sponsored by French President Nicolas Zakozy.

Ehud Olmert may not be sitting in the Premier's chair long enough to oversee future decisions affecting war and peace in Israel. Kadima party officials decided on July 21st to hold a leadership primary in mid-September to select someone else to replace him at the party's helm. The embattled former Jerusalem mayor may not even participate in the vote, given continuing police investigations against him and the fact that all opinion polls show he would be trounced by several other candidates, especially Foreign Minister Tzpi Livni and Mofaz. Former Shin Bet security chief Avi Dichter and Interior Minister Meir Shitreet are also expected to seek the top spot. Media reports revealed that Olmert and Livni had a vicious argument when the primary vote was announced, with the PM reportedly calling his Foreign Minister "a backstabbing liar." He later bitterly told Israel's Channel Two that Livni "is the least qualified" of the potential candidates to replace him, averring that "she cannot make big decisions, and has never has been able to do so."