Israel Update for January 2008

David Dolan

Within days of January's first official visit by President George W. Bush to Israel, his declared "vision" of a final peace accord between Israelis and Palestinians this year was already rapidly crumbling into the desert sand. Although formal peace negotiations got underway between the two sides soon after his departure, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's coalition government began to collapse as one party quit and another threatened to follow suit. His partners were objecting to the American leader's insistence that Olmert finalize an historic peace accord during 2008 featuring the establishment of a Palestinian state in the Gaza Strip and in Judaism's biblical heartland, Judea and Samaria, and possibly also in portions of east Jerusalem.

Meanwhile pressure on Olmert to resign increased in the wake of the Bush visit, as an official committee investigating the 2006 war with Hizbullah forces in Lebanon prepared to release its findings-widely expected to sharply rebuke the Premier's overall handling of the conflict.

A violent reaction to the US leader's short visit came from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, where an unprecedented barrage of rockets and mortars were launched at Israeli communities in the immediate days following Bush's departure. The sustained assaults, which saw over 100 rockets come crashing down in just four days, was seen as a demonstrative way for Hamas to show its extreme displeasure over the American President's peace push, and especially his public dismissal of Hamas as a legitimate player in the process. It came as IDF forces stepped up their campaign to target Islamic fighters firing mortars and rockets every day at Israeli civilian targets. Among Palestinians killed was the son of a prominent Hamas official. The group vowed revenge, which was quickly followed by three terror attacks upon Israelis near Jerusalem, leaving two dead and several others wounded, including two teachers who were stabbed when terrorists burst into their classroom.

An Israeli move to halt the rocket attacks by non-violent means backfired, ending in a major Hamas propaganda victory as sympathetic media reports about "Palestinian suffering" were accompanied by a fresh United Nations attempt to censure Israel. That was quickly followed by what commentators hailed as a brilliant Hamas PR move-the destruction of large sections of the Israeli built border security fence along the Gaza border with Egypt. They said the subsequent televised torrent of Palestinians pouring into Egypt significantly strengthened the radical group's popularity on the Arab street, while threatening the stability of the American-backed Egyptian regime and concurrently weakening the US-supported Palestinian Authority (PA), along with punching a huge new hole in the White House sponsored peace process.

Commanding His Audience

With just over one year left in office, George W. Bush decided to follow up last November's short Israeli-Palestinian peace parlay outside of Washington D.C. with a three day visit to the Holy Land. Before he arrived at Ben Gurion Airport on Jan 9, the US President repeated what he stated at the Annapolis summit-his main goal was no less than to prod the two longtime Middle East adversaries to sign a final peace accord before he returns to Texas in January 2009.

While holding a joint press conference with PA leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah on the second day of his visit, Bush astonished most of his local listeners by stating that he "believes" such a treaty will actually be concluded this year. What the President's factual basis might be for making such a profession of faith was entirely obscure to regional politicians and pundits, given that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has raged on for more than six decades; that previous American-led peace attempts have ended in ashes; that the time frame put forward by Bush is incredibly short; that both sides are ruled by weak leaders who might be forced out of office at any time; that radical Hamas forces in the Gaza Strip staged a violent coup against PA rule only last June and continue to strengthen their hold over the area; and that nuclear-arming Iran and its regional allies repeatedly call for Israel's total destruction.

Many Israeli political commentators opined that the Bush visit was mainly designed to shore up the apparently compliant Ehud Olmert, and to reinforce the Hamas-challenged Mahmoud Abbas. Seemingly confirming the former contention, the American leader actually lectured the heads of two wavering coalition parties to stay on board Olmert's rickety government ship. The unusual public intervention was viewed as offensive by many Israelis, with some opposition politicians wondering aloud how Bush would feel if a visiting Israeli premier publicly instructed American cabinet members or lawmakers how to behave on the Washington stage.

Despite the fact that formal peace negotiations were rapidly launched between teams headed by Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Palestinian negotiator and former PA Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia, the visiting President's stated "belief" in what he termed "the vision thing" for peace was widely lampooned as entirely naïve. Others went further, terming it dangerous since it could easily ignite a violent reaction from Islamic peace process opponents (as it in fact quickly did in the Gaza Strip).

Israel's most popular satirical television program, Eretz Nehederet (Pleasant Land), had a field day lambasting the President's words, stopping just short of openly mocking his widely perceived naivety. This came as political commentators noted that Bush had hardly mentioned the violent Hamas takeover of the crowded coastal zone, as if ignoring that reality would make what is clearly a massive impediment to any final status peace treaty simply go away. The visiting leader's contention that Hamas would somehow "see the benefits of peace" and accept a PLO Fatah-negotiated accord once it is signed by Abbas signaled that he is woefully ignorant of the true nature and depth of the militant group's faith-based rejection of a Jewish state in the mainly Muslim Middle East, however large or small, said many analysts.

Lieberman Calls It Quits

The first defection from Ehud Olmert's fraying coalition quilt came just five days after George Bush departed Israel to visit several Gulf Arab states. Soviet-born nationalist politician Avigdor Lieberman, who emigrated to Israel in 1978 and served as Binyamin Netanyahu's bureau chief in 1996-97, yanked his 11-Knesset seat Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our Home) party out of the government. In doing so, he gave up his two official positions as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategic Affairs-a cabinet post focused on the Iranian nuclear threat which was created especially for him when he joined Olmert's government in October 2006.

The fiery Lieberman had made many enemies during his cabinet stint by calling for the prosecution of Arab Israeli legislators who have any dealings with Hamas or other declared enemies of the state, and by advocating that majority Arab portions of the Galilee region be handed over to any future Palestinian state in exchange for Israeli annexation of three large Jewish population centers in Judea and Samaria. He had always made clear to Olmert that any negotiations with the Palestinians which even hinted at the dismantling of Jewish communities or permitting Arab control over any portion of Jerusalem would be red lines that he would not cross.

When the embattled Premier confirmed during talks in Jerusalem with Bush that he is willing to dismantle at least some Jewish settlements, as America is demanding, and to possibly hand over parts of the holy city to Palestinian control, Lieberman decided the time had come to exit the coalition. However many Israeli commentators said the immigrant leader was mainly demonstrating once again that he is a masterful politician, instinctively knowing when to jump off a sinking ship.