Israel Update for August 2010

Israeli government officials reacted to the deadly Lebanese Army assault in strong terms, but with no further military action. Defense Minister Barak wanted to respond with a major military operation, according to many press reports, as PM Olmert had done when IDF soldiers were ambushed along the border in July 2006. Apparently the rather negative outcome of that war caused the Labor party leader to think twice, along with promptings to hold his fire from French President Sarkozy. However some military analysts pointed out that the Israeli government understands that Hizbullah's burgeoning militia force and expanding rocket arsenal will have to be dealt with sooner or later, so the unprovoked army shootings might actually have been the best time to launch a counter operation.

Binyamin Netanyahu's office issued a stern statement attributed to him, warning that "We will reach, and hit with great force, anyone who shoots at Israeli citizens, no matter from where." The Premier was not only referring to the border confrontation, but also to a series of Palestinian rocket attacks upon Israeli civilian areas that began the previous Friday when a powerful Grad missile exploded in the coastal city of Ashkelon at 8:20 in the morning, leaving significant damage in its wake, but thankfully no casualties. The first direct attack upon the popular tourist destination since Operation Cast Led ended in January 2009, the rocket was launched from the nearby Gaza Strip. Visiting friends there, I was among thousands in the city who heard the thunderous explosion. Reports say many Ashkelon children remain especially traumatized by the resumption of rocket assaults upon their home area.

The next evening, a Palestinian Kassam rocket was fired at the frequently hit town of Sderot, just a couple miles from the northeast Gaza border. The blast partially destroyed a public building often crowded with local citizens. Thankfully, it struck on the only evening of the week when the building is closed.

Just one day before the Upper Galilee border clash, a most unusual rocket barrage was launched from across the Egyptian border. At least five rockets were fired at the southern Israeli resort city of Eilat, packed with local tourists and foreign visitors this time of year. Once again, it was a virtual miracle that no one was inured or killed in the Red Sea port city.

However two of the rockets apparently overshot their target and exploded in the adjacent Jordanian city of Akaba, killing a local taxi driver and injuring three tourists heading to the beach next to their five star hotel. Israeli analysts said the Akaba landings might have been deliberate since Amman maintains a peace treaty with Israel that Islamic radicals deplore. Although Egyptian government officials initially denied that the rockets had been fired from their sovereign territory, they later admitted it had indeed been the case, blaming Islamic militants for the attack while reinforcing army forces in the area.

Many Israeli military analysts wondered aloud if the three separate rocket assaults in four days might have been coordinated in advance with the explosive Lebanese Army assault, possibly under Iranian direction. A full-scale war with the American-armed Lebanese Army, which would be fully supported by Hizbullah militiamen and their vast rocket arsenal, and by Syrian forces, vow officials in Damascus, would go a long way toward tying up IDF troops, along with Air Force pilots who might otherwise be free to attack Iran's threatening nuclear programme.

Warning To The World

Whoever was ultimately behind the series of attacks and whatever their motivation, PM Netanyahu stated forcefully that his government will not sit still while his cities and soldiers are targeted by enemy fire. "I want it to be clear to Hamas, as well as to the Lebanese government, which we hold responsible for the violent provocations against our soldiers: Do not test our determination to protect Israeli citizens and soldiers."

The Likud party leader also had a word of caution for the nations: "For years, many in the international community have remained silent when rockets have been fired at Israeli civilians, and when unprovoked attacks have been launched against our soldiers. Expressions of outrage have largely been reserved for Israel's response to those attacks. Firing missiles on civilians is a war crime, and unprovoked attacks on soldiers are blatant acts of aggression. Israel expects the international community to condemn such attacks in the strongest possible terms."

The tough statement was thought by many to be partially aimed at the Obama administration. Senior officials were said to have been upset by the US government's initial "evenhanded" reaction to the Lebanese cross border attack, which seemed to equally blame both countries for the confrontation. However after the UN made clear that no IDF troops or civilian workers had crossed into Lebanese territory, and that the Lebanese Army had been notified of the tree trimming work in advance, the administration changed its tune, with a State Department spokesman admitting that the armed assault was "wholly unjustified and unwarranted."

In the wake of the dramatic border clash, many American legislators called for US military aid to Lebanon to be either vastly reduced or cut out altogether. President Obama quickly opposed the call. Some $750 million worth of aid has been given to the Lebanese Army since the Beirut assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri on Valentine's Day in 2005. While the stated US goal is to "strengthen the pro-Western army" against Iranian and Syrian-supported Hizbullah militia forces, many American and Israeli politicians and commentators noted that the majority of Lebanese soldiers and commanders are themselves Shiite Muslims, with at least some prone to support Hizbullah in any real showdown with Israel.

Meanwhile Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah delivered a lengthy televised speech at the start of Ramadan in which he accused Israel of being behind Hariri's assassination. Israeli leaders called the charge absurd, given that the slain leader was allied with America, France and Saudi Arabia. A special UN investigative panel has reportedly concluded that Hizbullah carried out the murder with Syrian backing (Hariri was attempting to force Syrian occupation troops out of his country at the time). Many opined that Nasrallah had ordered Lebanese Army soldiers loyal to him to open fire on IDF forces in order to spark a major conflict that would turn attention away from the UN finding, which could be released at any time.

Israel's Deputy Defense Minister, Matan Viln'i, told the Jerusalem Post newspaper that Hizbullah is not only capable of striking the capital city with medium range rockets, but can now accurately target government buildings in the western half of Jerusalem while avoiding hitting Muslim holy sites and Palestinian neighborhoods in the east. Although he believes there is "no Arab interest at present in a war," he added that "the IDF has noticed a radical shift within the Lebanese Army's top command, which has increased its anti-Israel rhetoric." He warned Israel's next war will involve missile strikes all over the country, saying the Defense Ministry is doing all it can to prepare for that probability. His comments came just a couple weeks before it was announced that additional large public bomb shelters will be constructed in cities all over Israel.

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